AQA GCSE History 2027 Predictions
With a new exam cycle beginning and the GCSE History exam season approaching once again, many students are already asking which topics could appear in the 2027 AQA GCSE History exams. Following the strong interest and the steady stream of requests we have received, we will be publishing another complete set of predictions this year.
However, it is important to make one point clear: we do not encourage students to rely on predictions alone. Attempting to “spot” questions can create a false sense of security and leave significant gaps in your knowledge. Our aim is to help students revise more strategically while remaining fully prepared for any topic AQA’s examiners may select.
Our AQA GCSE History 2027 predictions draw on our experience as teachers and our analysis of recent examination series. We consider how recently each topic has appeared, how frequently it has been assessed and whether any broader patterns can be identified across previous papers. Although you should revise the entire specification, these predictions can help you prioritise your revision and identify areas that may deserve additional attention.
Topics — click to jump:
Paper 1: Understanding the Modern World
Paper 2: Shaping the Nation
Predictions for Germany, 1890–1945: Democracy and Dictatorship
Prediction 1: Women under Nazi rule
This is arguably the strongest individual prediction. Nazi policies towards young people and Christians appeared in the 2026 12-mark question, while racial policies appeared in 2025. However, the lives of women have not been directly examined in any of the papers listed from 2020 to 2026.
Students should revise:
Nazi beliefs about women and the family
The “three Ks”: children, kitchen and church
Marriage loans and birth incentives
The Mother’s Cross
Restrictions on women’s employment
Changes caused by labour shortages and the Second World War
The difference between Nazi ideals and women’s actual experiences
This topic could appear as an interpretations investigation or an 8-mark effects question.
Prediction 2: Kaiser Wilhelm’s government and the transformation of Germany
Problems faced by the Kaiser appeared in 2020 and again in 2025. This initially makes the broader Kaiser period appear less likely. However, both questions were general 4-mark questions. Several specific parts of the topic have still received little or no substantial examination.
The most important gaps are:
The growth of parliamentary government
The influence of Prussian militarism
Industrialisation and urbanisation
The growth of the Social Democratic Party
The Kaiser’s social reforms
The domestic importance of the Navy Laws
This makes the specific political and social transformation of Germany before 1914 a strong possibility, particularly for an 8-mark or 12-mark question. A general “problems faced by the Kaiser” question is less likely because it appeared as recently as 2025.
Prediction 3: The impact of the First World War and the collapse of the monarchy
The First World War is one of the clearest gaps in recent coverage. The 2021 paper asked about problems following the Kaiser’s abdication, but there has been no substantial question specifically examining:
War weariness
Food shortages and the British blockade
Economic problems and inflation
Military defeat
Political unrest
The reasons for the Kaiser’s abdication
The establishment of the new republic
The effects of the Second World War appeared in both 2020 and 2022, but the effects of the First World War have been much less prominent. This topic is therefore a strong candidate for a 4-mark, 8-mark or 12-mark question.
Prediction 4: Papen, Hindenburg and Hitler’s appointment as Chancellor
The growth of Nazi support has appeared frequently:
Hitler’s appeal in 2021
The Nazi rise to power in 2022
The impact of the Depression in 2023 and 2024
Support for the Nazi Party in the 2025 interpretations
However, the final political process by which Hitler became Chancellor has received much less direct attention. The following areas remain important coverage gaps:
The results of the elections of 1930 and 1932
The failure of presidential government
Hindenburg’s reluctance to appoint Hitler
Papen’s political calculations
The belief that Hitler could be controlled
Hitler’s appointment on 30 January 1933
Because the broader growth of Nazi support has been heavily examined, a question focusing only on Hitler’s appeal or the Depression is less likely. A question comparing popular support with the political actions of Papen and Hindenburg is considerably more plausible.
Prediction 5: Nazi propaganda, repression and control
Different elements of Nazi control have appeared before:
The police state in 2022
Nazi culture and censorship in 2025
Problems faced by Hitler’s opponents in 2026
However, AQA has not recently asked a major question directly comparing propaganda and repression as methods of control.
Students should revise:
Goebbels and the Ministry of Propaganda
Newspapers, radio, rallies and cinema
Censorship and control of culture
Himmler and the SS
The Gestapo and informers
Concentration camps
Reasons opposition was difficult
The combination of persuasion and terror
The topic remains a reasonable possibility, although its probability is reduced slightly by the appearance of censorship in 2025 and opponents in 2026.
Predictions for Conflict and Tension: The Inter-War Years, 1918–1939
Prediction 1: The remilitarisation of the Rhineland
The Rhineland has not been directly examined since the 12-mark source question in 2020. This makes it one of the most overdue major events in the specification.
Students should revise:
Hitler’s reasons for remilitarising the Rhineland
Why the action was a gamble
French and British reactions
Why the League did not intervene
How the success strengthened Hitler
Its effect on Mussolini, appeasement and European tension
Most likely format: 4-mark source question, 12-mark utility question or 8-mark account.
Prediction 2: the collapse and failure of the League of Nations
The last focused 16-mark question on why the League failed appeared in 2021. Although the League has appeared frequently in source questions, the wider reasons for its collapse are increasingly overdue as an extended judgement question.
The 2026 paper covered the Abyssinian Crisis, so a 2027 question would be more likely to focus on the broader causes of failure:
Weaknesses in the League’s organisation
The absence of the USA
The requirement for unanimous decisions
The lack of armed forces
The effects of the Great Depression
The self-interest of Britain and France
The actions of aggressive powers
Whether Manchuria or Abyssinia was the decisive failure
Prediction 3: The Nazi–Soviet Pact and the outbreak of war
The Nazi–Soviet Pact was last directly examined in the 2021 8-mark question. The 2025 paper addressed the outbreak of war through Chamberlain’s policy of appeasement, but the roles of Stalin and the Soviet Union have received much less direct attention.
There is also a notable precedent: the Abyssinian Crisis returned as an 8-marker in 2026 after previously appearing in that format in 2020. A similar six-year return would make the Nazi–Soviet Pact a strong 2027 possibility.
Students should revise:
The failure of negotiations between Britain, France and the USSR
Stalin’s reasons for negotiating with Hitler
The terms of the Nazi–Soviet Pact
The secret agreement to divide Poland
Hitler’s reasons for signing the agreement
The invasion of Poland
Why Britain and France declared war
Prediction 4: Hitler’s foreign policy and the development of tension, 1933–1936
Several topics within this section have never been directly named in the questions provided:
The Dollfuss Affair
The Saar plebiscite
The Stresa Front
The Anglo-German Naval Agreement
German rearmament appeared as part of the 2023 judgement question, but the wider sequence through which Hitler undermined the peace settlement remains underexamined.
Students should particularly understand how the following events connected:
Hitler began rearmament.
Germany introduced conscription.
Britain, France and Italy formed the Stresa Front.
Britain signed the Anglo-German Naval Agreement.
The Stresa Front was weakened.
Hitler became more confident about remilitarising the Rhineland.
Prediction 5: Diplomacy outside the League
The Locarno Treaties appeared in the 4-mark source question in 2023, but the Kellogg–Briand Pact has not been directly examined in the papers listed. This makes diplomacy outside the League an important specification gap.
Students should revise:
The agreements reached at Locarno
Germany’s acceptance of its western borders
Germany’s entry into the League
The apparent improvement in Franco-German relations
The terms and limitations of the Kellogg–Briand Pact
Why neither agreement provided a reliable guarantee of peace
Prediction 6: wider peace settlement and the problems facing the new states
Questions about the Treaty of Versailles have appeared extremely frequently. However, coverage has concentrated overwhelmingly on German objections. The wider settlement and the problems created for the new states have received little direct attention.
Students should revise:
The treaties imposed on Germany’s former allies
The creation of countries such as Poland, Czechoslovakia and Yugoslavia
Minority populations left within the new states
Border and territorial disputes
The difficulty of applying national self-determination consistently
Allied reactions to the settlement
The strengths and weaknesses of the overall peace settlement
Predictions for Conflict and Tension: The First World War, 1894–1918
Prediction 1: The Hundred Days and the Allied advance in 1918
The Hundred Days has not been the central subject of any question between 2020 and 2026. This is particularly striking because the German Spring Offensive has been examined three times:
2021: 16-mark judgement question
2024: 12-mark source question
2026: 8-mark account question
AQA has therefore thoroughly examined the German offensive but has not directly tested the Allied counter-offensive that followed it. The Hundred Days, including improved Allied tactics, combined-arms warfare, tanks, aircraft and coordinated attacks, is one of the clearest gaps in the papers.
Prediction 2: The blockade and Germany’s surrender
The naval blockade, collapse of morale, abdication of the Kaiser and signing of the armistice have not been examined individually in a major question. The broad subject of the end of the war appeared in the 2022 source question, while Germany’s defeat appeared in the 2023 four-mark source question. However, the specific reasons Germany requested an armistice remain significantly underexamined.
This is especially likely for the 16-mark question because Part Three has not focused on it since 2021. The essays since then have focused on:
2022: Western Front stalemate
2023: outbreak of war
2024: Western Front stalemate
2025: outbreak of war
2026: Western Front stalemate
A return to the ending of the war would therefore create a sensible balance.
Prediction 3: Verdun and Passchendaele
Neither Verdun nor Passchendaele has been directly examined recently. By contrast, the Somme was the subject of the 2026 essay.
AQA could now move to one of the other named Western Front battles. Both are suitable for source analysis and questions about the continuation of stalemate.
Verdun may be slightly more likely because it allows AQA to examine:
Falkenhayn’s strategy of attrition;
the attempt to “bleed France white”;
French resistance under Pétain;
enormous casualties;
the failure of Germany to break the French army.
Passchendaele is also a strong possibility because it allows questions about:
Haig’s objectives;
terrible weather and battlefield conditions;
the use of artillery;
limited territorial gains;
whether the offensive was a failure.
Prediction 4: The Moroccan Crises
The Moroccan Crises of 1905 and 1911 are among the largest untouched areas in Part One. They have not been directly examined in any of the papers from 2020 to 2026.
The crises are especially suitable for an 8-mark account question because students can explain how German actions strengthened Anglo-French cooperation and increased Germany’s diplomatic isolation.
Prediction 5: The July Crisis and the escalation of war
The assassination has been examined repeatedly:
2021: 8-mark account
2023: 16-mark judgement
2026: 12-mark source question
However, the wider July Crisis has not received the same direct treatment. AQA could therefore move beyond the assassination itself and focus on:
Austria-Hungary’s ultimatum to Serbia;
Germany’s “blank cheque”;
Russian mobilisation;
German declarations of war;
the invasion of Belgium;
Britain’s entry into the conflict.
This would let AQA examine how a regional dispute became a European and then international war without simply repeating another assassination question.
Prediction 6: Military tactics and technology in 1918 — High probability
Trench warfare and military leadership have appeared before, but the evolution of warfare by 1918 has never been examined directly.
Students should revise:
improved artillery tactics;
the creeping barrage;
tanks;
aircraft;
coordination between infantry, artillery and air power;
German stormtrooper tactics;
the increasingly effective Allied use of combined arms.
This topic could be connected to either the Spring Offensive or the Hundred Days, although a question centred on the Allied use of new tactics is more likely because the Spring Offensive was tested in 2026.
Prediction 7: Haig and Foch’s contribution to Germany’s defeat
Haig appeared indirectly in the 2022 question about military leadership and the 2026 Somme essay. However, neither Haig nor Foch has been directly examined for their role in final victory.
Foch is particularly underexamined. His appointment as Supreme Allied Commander and his coordination of Allied forces during the Hundred Days offer AQA a clear way of assessing individual leadership.
Predictions for Conflict and Tension Between East and West, 1945–1972
Prediction 1: The Berlin Wall and Kennedy’s response — Very high probability
The Berlin Wall is arguably the strongest prediction for 2027. It has appeared only once in the papers: as the subject of the 4-mark source question in 2021. It has never been directly tested through either an 8-mark account or a 16-mark judgement question.
By 2027, there will have been a six-year gap since its last named appearance.
Furthermore, AQA has already examined the other major crises of the 1960s repeatedly:
U2 Crisis in 2020 and 2022
Czechoslovakia in 2021, 2023 and 2024
Cuba in 2020, 2025 and 2026
This leaves the Berlin Wall as the most obvious under-examined crisis from Part Three.
Possible questions:
Write an account of how the building of the Berlin Wall affected relations between East and West.
“The building of the Berlin Wall was the main reason for increased tension between the Superpowers during the early 1960s.” How far do you agree?
A source question about why the Berlin Wall was built or American reactions to its construction.
Prediction 2: NATO, the Warsaw Pact and the arms race
Military rivalry is another major area that has received surprisingly little direct attention.
NATO was the stated factor in the 2021 16-mark question, but the Warsaw Pact has not been directly named in any of the questions. Similarly, the wider nuclear arms race—including ICBMs and Polaris—has been overshadowed by two source questions on the Space Race in 2023 and 2025.
Because the Space Race has been examined recently, AQA may move towards the other parts of this specification point: NATO, the Warsaw Pact and the nuclear arms race.
Possible questions:
Write an account of how military rivalry between the Superpowers developed during the 1950s.
Write an account of how the formation of NATO and the Warsaw Pact affected the Cold War.
“The arms race was the main reason for the development of the Cold War during the 1950s.” How far do you agree?
Source questions involving NATO, the Warsaw Pact or nuclear weapons.
Prediction 3: Soviet expansion, Cominform, Comecon and Yugoslavia
Soviet expansion in Eastern Europe has frequently provided background knowledge for questions, but several individual parts of this topic have not been directly examined.
In particular, none of the questions explicitly focuses on:
Cominform
Comecon
Stalin’s control of Eastern Europe
Yugoslavia’s break with the USSR
The Truman Doctrine was tested in 2021, while the beginning of the Cold War was used for a broad source question in 2024. Nevertheless, the specific Soviet response to American policies remains an important gap. This makes Soviet expansion and Stalin’s attempts to strengthen control over Eastern Europe strong candidates, particularly for a source question or an account question.
Prediction 4: Yalta, Potsdam and the breakdown of the wartime alliance
The disagreements at Yalta and Potsdam, contrasting ideologies and the changing relationships between Stalin and the Western leaders have not been directly named in an 8- or 16-mark question since 2020.
The 2024 source question broadly examined the beginning of the Cold War, so some of this material may have been relevant. However, no recent question has specifically focused on:
The differences between Yalta and Potsdam
Truman’s more confrontational approach
Disagreements over Germany and Eastern Europe
The changing relationship following Roosevelt’s death
The combined effect of ideology and wartime disagreements
AQA has not set a 16-mark question principally about the origins of the Cold War since the atom-bomb question in 2020. This makes a return to 1945–49 plausible in 2027.
Prediction 5: Hungary and the limits of the Thaw — High probability
Hungary has appeared only once as a named topic: the 2022 question asking how events in Hungary affected the Cold War.
It has not been used for a 12-mark source question or a 16-mark judgement question in the papers. By 2027, five years will have passed since its previous appearance.
The broader concept of the Thaw is also underexamined. AQA could connect Hungary to Khrushchev’s reforms, Soviet fears and the limits of improved East–West relations.
Prediction 6: Détente, SALT I, Nixon and Brezhnev
The easing of tension was tested through an 8-mark account in 2023, while the 2020 source question concerned talks to reduce tension. However, the more specific elements of détente remain underused:
The reasons both Superpowers wanted détente
SALT I
Nixon’s role
Brezhnev’s role
Economic pressures
Nuclear parity
Continued disagreements over human rights
This topic is therefore less overdue than the Berlin Wall, but it is a strong possibility for a 16-mark judgement question.
Predictions for Conflict and Tension in Asia, 1950–1975
Prediction 1: Opposition to Diem and the growth of the Vietcong
This is the strongest prediction because it has never been examined directly in the papers listed. The 2024 question covered Vietcong tactics, but not why the Vietcong gained support.
Revise:
Diem’s unpopular and authoritarian government.
Discrimination against Buddhists.
Corruption and repression.
Opposition to Diem in South Vietnam.
Vietcong aims, support and leadership.
Ho Chi Minh’s role.
Why South Vietnamese peasants supported the Vietcong.
Prediction 2: Intervention under Eisenhower and Kennedy
This is another major gap. The Domino Theory appeared in 2020 and Strategic Hamlets appeared briefly in the 2021 source question, but American intervention before Johnson has not been covered comprehensively.
Revise:
The Domino Theory.
Eisenhower’s support for South Vietnam.
Kennedy’s expansion of military advisers.
American support for Diem.
The Strategic Hamlets programme.
Why early American intervention failed to stop communism.
Prediction 3: Dien Bien Phu and the end of French colonial rule
The 2023 paper examined how the Geneva Agreement led to further conflict, but Dien Bien Phu itself and the reasons French rule ended have not been directly tested.
Revise:
The French defeat at Dien Bien Phu.
The strengths of the Viet Minh.
Ho Chi Minh’s leadership.
The consequences of the French defeat.
The Geneva Agreement and division at the 17th Parallel.
Why the planned national elections did not take place.
Prediction 4: My Lai and its public impact
My Lai is explicitly named in the specification but has never been the central topic of a question in the papers provided. It could be examined as part of American tactics or the growth of opposition to the war.
Revise:
What happened at My Lai.
Why the massacre occurred.
Attempts to conceal the massacre.
Media reporting of the incident.
Its impact on American public opinion.
How it damaged the reputation of the US military.
Prediction 5: Mass bombing and Search and Destroy
These important American tactics have appeared as supporting factors but have not been the clear central focus of a question.
Revise:
The aims of Operation Rolling Thunder.
Search and Destroy tactics.
The use of helicopters and superior firepower.
Problems identifying Vietcong fighters.
Civilian casualties and destruction.
Why American tactics failed to defeat the Vietcong.
How these tactics increased opposition to the war.
Prediction 6: Impact of the Korean War
The military development and ending of the Korean War have been examined frequently, but its wider consequences remain comparatively underused.
Revise the impact on:
North and South Korea.
The continued division of Korea.
The authority and reputation of the UN.
Relations between China and the United States.
American containment policy in Asia.
China’s international position.
Predictions for Britain: Health and the People, c1000 to the Present Day
Prediction 1: The impact of war and technology on modern surgery
This is one of the strongest predictions because the specific developments within modern surgery have received very little direct attention in recent examinations. Although war was included in the 2021 factors question, developments such as blood transfusions, X-rays and plastic surgery have not recently been tested as standalone topics.
Students should revise:
X-rays and their use during war
Blood transfusions and blood storage
Plastic surgery and Harold Gillies
Transplant surgery
Keyhole and laser surgery
How war accelerated surgical development
The importance of science and technology
Prediction 2: Booth, Rowntree and the Liberal social reforms
This is another major gap. The Welfare State and NHS have appeared, but the earlier development of government responsibility has received much less direct coverage.
Students should revise:
Booth’s investigation into poverty in London
Rowntree’s investigation into poverty in York
The poor physical condition of Boer War recruits
Free school meals
Medical inspections and treatment for children
Old-age pensions
National Insurance
How the reforms changed the government’s responsibility for health
Prediction 3: Islamic medicine and surgery
Islamic medicine has not been the direct focus of any of the questions from 2020 to 2026. This makes it one of the clearest gaps in the medieval section.
Students should revise:
The preservation of Greek and Roman medical knowledge
Islamic hospitals
Medical education and libraries
The work of Islamic doctors and surgeons
Translation of Islamic medical texts
How Islamic medicine influenced medicine in Britain
Why Islamic medicine was more advanced than medicine in medieval Europe
Prediction 4: John Hunter and the changing status of surgeons
John Hunter has not recently appeared as a named topic. The development of medical training and the changing status of surgeons and physicians are also relatively under-tested.
Students should revise:
Hunter’s scientific approach to surgery
His use of observation and experimentation
His work on anatomy
The training of surgeons
The separation of surgeons from barber surgeons
The growing professional status of doctors and surgeons
The limitations of eighteenth-century surgery
Prediction 5: Modern healthcare problems and treatments
The later twentieth and twenty-first centuries contain several topics that have received little direct coverage. These are especially important because recent papers have concentrated more heavily on nineteenth-century medicine.
Students should revise:
Antibiotic resistance
The search for new antibiotics
Alternative treatments
The pharmaceutical industry
The costs of modern healthcare
Choices over which treatments the NHS should provide
The problems facing the NHS in the twenty-first century
Prediction 6: Paul Ehrlich and magic bullets
Pasteur was tested in 2025 and Koch appeared in the 2023 comparison question, but Ehrlich and the development of magic bullets have not recently been tested directly.
Students should revise:
Ehrlich’s search for a chemical cure
Salvarsan 606
The treatment of syphilis
The connection between Germ Theory and chemical treatments
The importance and limitations of magic bullets
How Ehrlich influenced later pharmaceutical research
Topics less likely to be repeated in 2027
Based primarily on recency, the following topics appear less likely:
Cholera — Source topic in 2026 and 2023, as well as part of the 2024 comparison
Anaesthetics — Significance question in 2026
Pasteur — Significance question in 2025
Penicillin — Source question in 2025
The general impact of the Renaissance — Significance question in 2024
Medieval and seventeenth/eighteenth-century treatments — Comparison question in 2026
Government and public health — Factors question in 2025
Communication as a factor — Factors question in 2026
Predictions for Elizabethan England, c1568–1603
Prediction 1: Mary, Queen of Scots
Mary, Queen of Scots is the strongest overall prediction for 2027. Although Mary was connected to the 2023 historic environment question on Sheffield Manor Lodge, she has been largely absent from the three standard eight-mark questions in recent years. Her last direct Question 2 appearance was in 2018, when students were asked about the importance of her arrival in England.
This leaves several major parts of the specification insufficiently tested:
Why Mary posed a challenge to Elizabeth
Elizabeth and Parliament’s treatment of Mary
Mary’s involvement in Catholic plots
The reasons for her execution in 1587
The impact of her execution
How the threat posed by Mary developed over time
Mary is particularly suitable for a Write an account question because her story provides a clear chronological sequence: her arrival in 1568, imprisonment, association with successive plots, the Babington Plot and her eventual execution.
Prediction 2: Marriage and the succession
The problem of marriage and the succession is another major area that has not received a recent direct question.
Marriage last appeared as the interpretation question in 2018, while the broader difficulties of being a female ruler appeared as an account question in 2021. Since then, Parliament, Essex, poverty, religion and exploration have all been examined more recently.
AQA could distinguish marriage and succession from the broader issue of female rule by focusing on:
Pressure from Parliament for Elizabeth to marry
The advantages and dangers of different marriage candidates
Elizabeth’s reasons for remaining unmarried
The absence of a named successor
The political consequences of uncertainty over the succession
Prediction 3: Living standards, prosperity and the rise of the gentry
The “Golden Age” has appeared before, but its individual economic and social elements remain relatively underexamined.
The general idea of a Golden Age appeared in 2021, while the theatre has been examined repeatedly.
Poverty was examined in 2023 and 2025. This makes the remaining elements of the Golden Age increasingly conspicuous:
Growing prosperity
The rise of the gentry
Changing living standards
New fashions and luxury goods
Whether prosperity benefited the whole population
The contrast between wealthy and poor Elizabethans
AQA may return to the Golden Age through a narrower and less frequently tested angle.
Possible questions include:
How convincing is Interpretation A about living standards in Elizabethan England?
How convincing is Interpretation A about the idea that Elizabethan England experienced a Golden Age?
Explain what was important about the rise of the gentry.
Write an account of how increasing prosperity affected Elizabethan society.
This is a particularly strong possibility for the interpretation question because an interpretation could argue either that Elizabethan England was prosperous or that the idea of a Golden Age has been exaggerated.
