Cambridge IGCSE Maths Predictions 2026 (0580/0980): October/November Sitting
Updated: 1 day ago
If you are taking Cambridge IGCSE Mathematics in October or November 2026, these predictions will help you identify the Extended topics that deserve the most attention before the coming exams. They are based on the frequency of topics in the latest papers, how recently each topic has appeared and which important parts of the syllabus have received relatively little coverage.
However, it is important to state clearly that I do not advocate question-spotting, nor do I encourage students to rely on predictions alone. Spotting is unreliable and gives a false sense of security. Instead, my goal is to help students prepare strategically and intelligently for any topic the examiners may choose. Cambridge can test any topic in the Extended syllabus, and a topic can appear in consecutive examination series.
How These Predictions Were Made
The analysis covered 13 of the most recent Extended papers:
All six Extended papers from October/November 2025
Papers 22 and 42 from February/March 2026
Five Extended papers from May/June 2026
Each topic was considered using three main factors:
Frequency: How often has the topic appeared across the recent papers?
Recency: Did it appear in May/June 2026, or has it been absent from the latest series?
Notable gaps: Is it an important syllabus topic that has received unusually little recent coverage?
Recent papers were given the greatest importance. However, a topic was not automatically removed from the predictions simply because it appeared recently. Cambridge regularly tests major skills such as algebra, trigonometry and mensuration in consecutive examination series, often in a different form or as part of a larger problem.
The Strongest Overall Predictions
1. Three-Dimensional Mensuration and Trigonometry
This is the strongest prediction overall. Questions involving three-dimensional solids appeared in 12 of the 13 recent papers for the extended tier, making this one of the most consistently tested areas of the course.
Students should be ready to work with:
Cubes and cuboids
Prisms and pyramids
Cylinders and cones
Spheres and hemispheres
Frustums
Compound solids
Surface area and volume
Pythagoras’ theorem in three dimensions
Angles between a line and a plane
The most likely Paper 4 question would combine several of these skills. For example, students might first calculate a missing length, then use it to find a volume, surface area or angle. Similar solids or limits of accuracy could also be included in the same question.
Prediction: A substantial multi-step mensuration question is very likely to appear on at least one Paper 4 variant.
2. Quadratics and Advanced Algebra
Algebra appears throughout every Extended paper, but the later questions regularly involve more demanding skills. The most important areas to revise are:
Expanding and factorising expressions
Solving quadratic equations
Completing the square
Finding the turning point of a quadratic
Algebraic fractions
Fractional equations
Simultaneous equations involving a line and a curve
Rearranging more difficult formulas
Forming equations from geometric or real-life situations
Students should expect Cambridge to combine algebra with another topic. A question may begin with the area of a shape, a journey or a similar-solid relationship before asking the student to form and solve a quadratic equation.
Prediction: Quadratics and advanced algebra are very likely to appear on both Paper 2 and Paper 4.
3. Coordinate Geometry and Vectors
Coordinate geometry and vector work appeared repeatedly across the recent papers. These topics are particularly important because Cambridge can test them through short calculations or longer reasoning questions.
Revise:
Gradient and midpoint
Length of a line segment
Equations of straight lines
Parallel and perpendicular lines
Column vectors
Position vectors
Dividing a line in a given ratio
Showing that points are collinear
Proving that two vectors are parallel
A common high-mark question gives a diagram containing points on the sides of a triangle or parallelogram. Students must express different vectors in terms of two original vectors and then use the result to prove that several points lie on a straight line.
Prediction: Expect either a substantial vector-geometry problem or a coordinate-geometry question involving perpendicular lines.
4. Histograms and Cumulative Frequency
Statistics is an especially important area for the next sitting. Histograms appeared frequently in the recent papers, but cumulative frequency appeared only once in the 13-paper sample. This makes cumulative frequency the clearest notable gap in the analysis.
Students should practise:
Calculating frequency density
Completing or interpreting a histogram
Estimating the mean from grouped data
Completing cumulative-frequency tables
Drawing cumulative-frequency curves
Estimating the median and quartiles
Finding the interquartile range
Estimating percentiles
Cambridge may also combine a histogram with probability or ask students to compare two sets of data using averages and measures of spread.
Prediction: A cumulative-frequency question is one of the strongest gap-based predictions for October/November 2026. Histograms remain highly likely because of their consistently high frequency.
5. Functions and Differentiation
Functions and differentiation have become regular features of the current Extended papers. These topics are most likely to appear in the middle or later part of Paper 4, although a manageable functions question can also appear on Paper 2.
Revise:
Function notation
Composite functions
Inverse functions
Domain and range
Differentiating simple polynomial expressions
Finding the gradient of a curve at a point
Finding stationary points
Distinguishing between maximum and minimum points
Estimating a gradient by drawing a tangent
Students should also remember the connection between differentiation and graphs. A question may ask for the coordinates of the turning points before requiring students to determine whether each point is a maximum or minimum.
Prediction: At least one variant is likely to contain a substantial functions or differentiation question.
6. Similarity and Scale Factors
Similarity appeared in eight of the 13 recent papers, making it one of the most frequently tested geometry topics.
Students should revise:
Proving that two triangles are similar
Finding missing lengths using a linear scale factor
Area scale factors
Surface-area scale factors
Volume scale factors
Similar solids and capacity
The more difficult questions usually require students to identify whether the given information concerns length, area or volume. A common mistake is to use the linear scale factor directly when the question requires its square or cube.
Prediction: Similar triangles or similar solids are highly likely, possibly as part of a mensuration question.
7. Circle Theorems, Sectors and Arcs
Circle geometry appeared regularly across the recent Paper 2 variants. Students should prepare for a question that combines angle reasoning with an arc, sector or area calculation.
Revise:
The angle at the centre and the angle at the circumference
Angles in the same segment
Opposite angles in a cyclic quadrilateral
The angle between a tangent and a radius
The alternate segment theorem
Equal tangents from an external point
Arc length
Sector area
Major and minor sectors
Remember that circle-theorem questions often require a geometrical reason for every step. A correct angle without the required reason may not receive full credit.
Prediction: Circle theorems are particularly likely on Paper 2, while sector and arc calculations could appear on either paper.
8. Combined and Conditional Probability
Multi-stage probability appeared in seven of the recent papers, but clearly conditional probability was much less common. This creates a possible gap while maintaining a strong overall frequency for probability.
Students should be confident with:
Tree diagrams
Sample-space diagrams
Venn diagrams
Probability with and without replacement
Transferring an object between two containers
Expected frequency
Conditional questions using the words “given that”
Do not rely only on memorised tree-diagram methods. Cambridge may present the information in a table, Venn diagram or written situation instead.
Prediction: A multi-stage probability question is highly likely, with conditional probability a particularly strong possibility.
9. Sequences
Sequences appeared in seven of the 13 papers. Questions ranged from simple continuation to more demanding nth-term rules.
Revise:
Linear sequences
Quadratic sequences
Cubic sequences
Geometric and exponential sequences
Finding and using an nth term
Connecting two related sequences
Students should not assume that every nth-term question is linear. Check first differences, second differences and ratios before deciding on a method.
Prediction: At least one variant is likely to contain a quadratic, cubic or exponential sequence rather than only a simple arithmetic sequence.
10. Bounds, Density and Rates
Limits of accuracy appeared in six of the recent papers and were often included in demanding practical questions.
Revise:
Upper and lower bounds
Bounds involving addition and subtraction
Bounds for multiplication and division
Density, mass and volume
Speed, distance and time
Flow rates and capacity
Converting between units
Students must decide whether the required answer needs the largest or smallest possible value. For example, the lower bound of density requires the smallest possible mass divided by the largest possible volume.
Prediction: A bounds problem involving density, area, volume or speed is highly likely on Paper 4.
11. Exponential Growth, Decay and Compound Interest
Growth and decay appeared in almost every recent calculator-paper set. These questions often use money, population, depreciation or radioactive decay as their context.
Revise:
Compound interest
Depreciation
Exponential population change
Repeated percentage increase and decrease
Finding the number of complete years needed to pass a given value
Finding an unknown percentage rate
Be careful with questions asking for the number of complete years. Students must interpret the result in the context of the question rather than simply rounding normally.
Prediction: A repeated-percentage, growth or decay problem is one of the safest Paper 4 predictions.
12. Bearings, Scale Drawings and Construction
Bearings appeared in six recent papers, while scale drawings and geometrical constructions appeared less frequently.
Students should revise:
Three-figure bearings
Reverse bearings
Scale drawings
Constructing a triangle using a ruler and compasses
Showing all construction arcs
Interpreting nets of three-dimensional solids
Prediction: A bearing question is likely, while an exact ruler-and-compasses construction is a reasonable gap-based possibility.
Specific Predictions for Paper 2
Paper 2 is the non-calculator paper, but it can still assess demanding Extended content.
Students should expect exact calculations, careful algebra and questions that require clear mathematical reasoning.
The strongest Paper 2 predictions are:
Surds and exact values, including rationalising a denominator
Indices and standard form without a calculator
Quadratic equations, factorisation or completing the square
Algebraic fractions and rearranging formulas
Circle theorems with geometrical reasons
Arc length and sector area, possibly in terms of π
Coordinate geometry or vector proof
Transformations, including enlargement and reflection
Combined or conditional probability
Sequences and nth-term rules
Exact trigonometric values or a trigonometric equation
Cumulative frequency as the strongest statistical wildcard
Specific Predictions for Paper 4
Paper 4 is likely to contain longer questions that combine several topics and require careful use of a scientific calculator.
The strongest Paper 4 predictions are:
A multi-step three-dimensional mensuration problem
Sine rule, cosine rule or area of a non-right-angled triangle
Bearings or shortest-distance trigonometry
Similar solids involving surface area or volume
Histograms, estimated mean or cumulative frequency
Functions, inverse functions or composite functions
Differentiation and stationary points
A non-linear graph with graphical equation solving
Compound interest, depreciation or exponential decay
Bounds involving density, speed, area or volume
Simultaneous equations involving a line and a curve
A substantial vector-geometry problem
Students should avoid rounding intermediate values in Paper 4. Keep the full calculator value until the final step, then give the answer to the accuracy requested in the question.
The Most Important Topics to Revise First
If you have limited revision time, prioritise these eight areas:
Three-dimensional mensuration, trigonometry and similar solids
Histograms and cumulative frequency
Quadratics, simultaneous equations and algebraic fractions
Functions and differentiation
Coordinate geometry and vectors
Circle theorems, sectors and arcs
Combined and conditional probability
Bounds, compound growth and exponential decay
These topics offer the strongest combination of high recent frequency, syllabus importance and notable gaps.
Final Advice
The clearest gap-based prediction for October/November 2026 is cumulative frequency. The strongest recurring predictions are three-dimensional mensuration, advanced algebra, coordinate geometry and vectors, similarity, statistics, and growth or decay.
However, predictions should guide revision rather than replace it. Cambridge questions can assess more than one area of the syllabus, so students must be ready to connect topics. A mensuration question may require algebra and trigonometry; a statistics question may include probability; and a coordinate problem may develop into a vector proof.
