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Edexcel GCSE History 2027 Predictions

Sep 3
35 min read

Updated: Sep 4

With a new exam cycle beginning and the GCSE History season approaching once again, many students are already asking us which GCSE History topics might appear in 2027. Given the strong interest and the steady stream of requests we have received, we will be offering another round of predictions this year. However, it is important to state clearly that we do not encourage students to rely on predictions alone. Spotting can give a false sense of security. Instead, our goal is to help students prepare strategically and intelligently for any topic the examiners may choose.


Our Edexcel GCSE History 2027 predictions draw on our years of experience as teachers, focusing on topic recency, frequency and patterns across recent exam series. While you should revise the entire specification, these predictions can help you prioritise your revision and identify topics that may be more likely to appear.


Our analysis will be grounded in two key principles:


  1. Frequency — Topics that have appeared repeatedly tend to be less likely to be chosen again.

  2. Recency — Topics that have just appeared (e.g. in 2025) are typically less probable for immediate repetition.


Topics (click to jump):


Our Crime & Punishment Predictions


Looking across the past papers from 2020 to 2026, several areas of the specification have appeared repeatedly, while others have received little or no direct attention.


Prediction 1: Changing definitions of crime, c1900–present


The changing definition of crime in modern Britain is one of the clearest gaps across the papers. Although changes in theft appeared in 2021, there has been no direct question on:

  • Driving offences

  • Race crimes

  • Drug crimes

  • New forms of smuggling

  • The wider reasons why new crimes have been created


This contrasts with modern punishment, which has been examined repeatedly through prisons, young offenders and the death penalty. A future question may therefore shift away from punishment and towards changes in criminal activity.


Students should understand how technological developments created driving and cyber-related offences, how changing social attitudes led to stronger laws against racial discrimination, and how government concerns produced new drug laws.


Prediction: Very high


Prediction 2: The treatment of conscientious objectors


The treatment of conscientious objectors during the First and Second World Wars has not been directly examined in any of the seven past papers. This is especially notable because the other modern case study, the Derek Bentley case, has appeared several times in questions concerning the death penalty.


Students should revise:

  • Reasons why some men refused to fight

  • The different types of conscientious objector

  • Tribunals during the First World War

  • Imprisonment and harsh treatment

  • The treatment of conscientious objectors during the Second World War

  • Reasons why attitudes and treatment became more tolerant


This topic could be used to test changing attitudes towards crimes against authority or the reasons why the treatment of offenders changed.


Prediction: Very high


Prediction 3: Crime in the eighteenth and nineteenth centuries


Several important crimes from the period c1700–c1900 have received limited attention. Smuggling was examined in 2021 and poaching in 2022, but highway robbery has not been made the direct focus of any of the recent questions.


The Tolpuddle Martyrs have also not been directly examined. Their treatment is particularly important for understanding how the government defined and punished activities that appeared to threaten its authority.


Students should revise:

  • Reasons for the growth and decline of highway robbery

  • Reasons for the prevalence of smuggling and poaching

  • Public attitudes towards these “social crimes”

  • The ending of witchcraft prosecutions

  • The arrest, transportation and eventual pardon of the Tolpuddle Martyrs

  • The influence of government action, economic conditions and changing attitudes


The overall nature and changing definition of crime during this period is therefore a strong candidate for 2027.


Prediction: High


Prediction 4: Changes in law enforcement across the different periods


Law enforcement is particularly likely to return as a comparison topic. The last Question 3 directly comparing law enforcement across periods appeared in 2020. Since then, the comparison question has concentrated mainly on crime and punishment, including prisons, poaching, young offenders, witchcraft, the death penalty and the purpose of punishment.


Students should therefore be prepared to compare methods of law enforcement across two periods. Important areas include:

  • Tithings and the hue and cry

  • Parish constables

  • Town watchmen

  • The Fielding brothers and Bow Street Runners

  • Robert Peel and the Metropolitan Police

  • The development of CID

  • Police specialisation and technology

  • Neighbourhood Watch and crime prevention


A question may focus on how responsibility moved from local communities towards professional police forces, while also recognising the continued contribution of ordinary people.


Prediction: High


Prediction 5: The  the Gunpowder Plot


Crimes against authority have appeared before, particularly in 2021 and through treason in 2025. However, the Gunpowder Plot itself has not been directly examined all the way from 2020 to 2026.


Prediction: High


6. Medieval and early modern community law enforcement


Some parts of medieval law enforcement have been examined recently, especially the hue and cry, religion and trial by ordeal. However, other parts of this topic remain comparatively underused, including:

  • Tithings

  • The role of the parish constable

  • The responsibilities of local communities

  • Town watchmen

  • Continuity between medieval and early modern law enforcement

  • The gradual expansion of government involvement


Students should be prepared to explain both change and continuity. The personnel involved changed, but law enforcement continued to depend heavily on unpaid local people throughout both periods.


Because medieval law enforcement was examined in 2026, an identical question is less likely. A comparison or a broader question about the changing role of local communities is more plausible.


Prediction: Medium–high


7. John Howard, Elizabeth Fry and nineteenth-century prison reform


Prisons have appeared relatively frequently, including in 2021, 2022 and 2025. However, the questions have focused principally on differences between periods, twentieth-century prisons and the separate system at Pentonville.


The individual contributions of John Howard and Elizabeth Fry have not been directly examined. Students should therefore revise:

  • Howard’s investigation of prison conditions

  • His criticism of disease, dirt and the payment of jailers

  • The influence of his work on prison reform

  • Fry’s work with female prisoners at Newgate

  • Education, religious instruction and productive work

  • The limits of both reformers’ influence

  • How their ideas contributed to changing attitudes towards punishment


The recent appearance of prisons reduces the probability of another broad prison question, but a question focused on the reasons for reform or the importance of particular individuals remains possible.


Whitechapel Topic Predictions


Prediction 1: Migration and the Jewish community in Whitechapel


Migration is the strongest Whitechapel prediction. None of the questions has directly focused on Irish migration, Eastern European migration or the increase in Jewish migration during the 1880s.


Students should revise:

  • Why migrants settled in Whitechapel

  • The growth of the Jewish population during the 1880s

  • Employment and housing conditions experienced by migrants

  • Cultural and religious differences

  • Hostility and antisemitism

  • Violent attacks against Jewish residents

  • How migration affected policing and community relations


This topic would work particularly well for either a feature question or a source enquiry. Sources could include census records, newspaper reports, photographs, police records or Charles Booth’s survey.


Prediction: Very high


Prediction 2: the beat constable and everyday policing in Whitechapel


Investigative policing and the failure to catch Jack the Ripper have appeared several times. By contrast, the ordinary work of the beat constable has received less direct attention.


Students should revise:

  • Regular patrols and fixed beats

  • Attempts to deter and detect crime

  • The beat constable’s knowledge of the local community

  • Difficulties created by narrow alleys, courts and rookeries

  • Poor lighting and overcrowding

  • The large and constantly changing population

  • Problems caused by alcohol, prostitution, gangs and protection rackets


The topic could also be connected to the wider weaknesses of H Division and the quality of Metropolitan Police recruits.


Prediction: High


Prediction 3: Public attitudes, social tension and disorder in Whitechapel


Questions have examined crime and general living conditions, but several specific forms of tension and disorder have not received much direct attention. These include:

  • Violent political demonstrations

  • Socialist activity

  • Antisemitic violence

  • Hostility towards the police

  • Alcohol-related disorder

  • Prostitution

  • Gangs and protection rackets

  • The difficulties of policing a transient population


Students should understand how poverty, overcrowding, unemployment, migration and distrust of the police made law enforcement more difficult.


This could be examined through an enquiry into crime, relations between residents and the police, or the effect of conditions on policing.

Prediction: High


Topics Made Less Likely by Recency

The following topics remain examinable, but are less likely to be the principal focus in 2027 because they have appeared recently or repeatedly:

  • Witchcraft and Matthew Hopkins

  • Religion and medieval law enforcement

  • Trial by ordeal and Benefit of Clergy

  • The death penalty and Derek Bentley

  • Prisons, Pentonville and the separate system

  • Whitechapel housing and accommodation

  • Investigative policing and Jack the Ripper


Our Medicine in Britain Predictions


Prediction 1: The development of penicillin


Fleming, Florey and Chain have not been the direct focus of any of the papers from 2020 to 2026. This is one of the most significant gaps because penicillin is a named case study in the specification.


Students should revise Fleming’s discovery of penicillin in 1928, why he was unable to develop it into a usable medicine, the work of Florey and Chain from 1938, and the importance of the Second World War, government funding and mass production. They should also be prepared to compare the importance of individuals with science, war, government and industry.


Although recent papers have covered Germ Theory and general scientific progress, they have not required detailed knowledge of how penicillin was developed.


Prediction: Very high


Prediction 2: Improvements in modern diagnosis


Blood tests, scans and electronic monitors have not been directly examined in any of the seven past papers. Modern science and technology appeared in 2026, but that question was much broader and focused partly on high-tech surgery.


A future question could concentrate more specifically on how blood tests, CT scans, MRI scans, PET scans and monitors have allowed doctors to detect illness more accurately and at an earlier stage. This topic could also be compared with diagnosis in the Renaissance, particularly the work of Thomas Sydenham.


The complete absence of a focused question on modern diagnosis makes this one of the strongest predictions.


Prediction: Very high


Prediction 3: the fight against lung cancer in the twenty-first century


The lung cancer case study has never been the direct focus of a question in the papers. Anti-smoking campaigns were mentioned in the 2024 paper, but students were not required to explain the complete lung cancer case study.


Students should revise the relationship between smoking and lung cancer, government prevention measures, improvements in diagnosis and developments in treatment. This includes smoking restrictions, public health campaigns, scans, biopsies, chemotherapy, radiotherapy and surgical treatment.


This is particularly important because it allows Edexcel to test several underused parts of the specification together: lifestyle causes, modern diagnosis, government prevention and high-tech treatment.


Prediction: Very high


Prediction 4: Renaissance medical training and the work of Vesalius


Renaissance medical knowledge has appeared before, particularly in 2021 and 2024. However, the specific issue of how medical training improved—and the detailed importance of Vesalius—has not been the central focus of a recent question.


Students should revise how Vesalius used human dissection to identify errors in Galen’s work, how The Fabric of the Human Body improved anatomical knowledge and how the printing press helped his discoveries spread. They should also understand the limitations of his work: improved anatomical knowledge did not immediately produce effective treatments or a correct understanding of disease.


Because the Renaissance has never been the direct focus of the compulsory 12-mark question in the papers, Renaissance training and knowledge remain strong possibilities.


Prediction: High


Prediction 5: William Harvey and the circulation of the blood


William Harvey appeared as suggested information in the 2024 question about Renaissance medical knowledge, but his work has never been the direct focus of a question in the papers.


Students should revise Harvey’s experiments, his calculation of the amount of blood passing through the heart and his conclusion that blood circulated continuously around the body. They should also understand the influence of Vesalius, improvements in scientific investigation and the limitations of Harvey’s discovery.


A question may ask about Harvey’s importance, why he was able to make his discovery or why his work initially had a limited effect on medical treatment.


Prediction: High


Prediction 6: The Royal Society and the spread of medical ideas


The printing press was directly examined in 2021, but the Royal Society has received much less attention. Its role in encouraging experimentation, sharing new discoveries and publishing scientific work therefore represents a notable gap.

Students should revise how the Royal Society promoted observation and experimentation and how its journal, Philosophical Transactions, allowed new ideas to circulate. They should also be able to compare its importance with the printing press and the work of individuals such as Vesalius, Harvey and Sydenham.

The printing press on its own is less likely because it has already been tested, but a broader question about the communication and acceptance of Renaissance ideas remains likely.


Prediction: High


Prediction 7: The Black Death, 1348–49


The Black Death has not been the direct focus of any of the questions from 2020 to 2026. This is a major gap because it is the named medieval case study.


Students should revise religious and supernatural explanations, the Four Humours and miasma, as well as treatments such as prayer, confession, bloodletting, purging and herbal remedies. They must also understand attempts at prevention, including avoiding infected people, cleaning streets, carrying pleasant-smelling substances and organising religious processions.


However, medieval explanations of disease appeared prominently in both 2025 and 2026. This recent coverage slightly reduces the likelihood of another broad question on medieval ideas, but a focused Black Death question remains possible because the case study itself has not been directly tested.


Prediction: High


Prediction 8: Apothecaries, barber surgeons and care in the community


Questions about medieval care have concentrated mainly on physicians, hospitals, the Church and herbal remedies. Apothecaries and barber surgeons have received far less direct attention.


Students should revise the different roles of:

  • Physicians, who diagnosed illness and recommended treatments.

  • Apothecaries, who prepared and sold medicines.

  • Barber surgeons, who carried out basic surgery, amputations and bloodletting.

  • Women and family members, who provided most everyday care within the home.

  • Hospitals, which generally offered rest, food and spiritual care rather than medical treatment.


This topic could appear through a question about who provided medical care or whether care and treatment changed between the medieval and Renaissance periods.


Prediction: High


Prediction 9: Magic bullets and the development of effective medicines


Magic bullets have not been directly examined in the papers. They form an important stage between the acceptance of Germ Theory and the development of antibiotics.


Students should revise Paul Ehrlich’s search for chemicals that would attack particular microbes without harming the rest of the body, the development of Salvarsan 606 and the importance of scientific laboratory research.


This topic could be tested alongside penicillin in a broader question about why medicines became more effective after 1900. It would also allow students to assess the relative importance of individuals, scientific knowledge, technology and government support.


Prediction: High


Western Front predictions


Prediction 1: Mobile X-ray units


Mobile X-ray units have not been the direct focus of any of the Western Front questions. They may have been relevant to the broad 2023 enquiry into new medical techniques, but students were not necessarily required to explain them in detail.


Students should revise how mobile X-rays helped surgeons locate bullets and shrapnel before operating, reducing unnecessary surgery and further damage. They should also understand their limitations, including the difficulty of moving equipment close to the front.


This is one of the clearest gaps in the Western Front section.


Prediction: Very high


Prediction 2: Gas attacks and their medical effects


The effects of gas attacks were last directly examined in 2020. Since then, Western Front enquiries have moved through blood transfusions, trench foot, new techniques, Casualty Clearing Stations, care and transportation.


Gas therefore has one of the longest gaps among the Western Front source topics. Students should revise the effects of chlorine, phosgene and mustard gas, along with the difficulties of treating gas casualties and the development of gas masks.


Prediction: Very high


Prediction 3: Wound infection and its treatment


Wounds and new treatment techniques appeared in 2023 and 2024, so this area is not completely absent. However, the specific problem of infection and methods such as debridement and the Carrel–Dakin method have not recently been isolated as the main topic.


Students should revise why infection was so dangerous, including the contamination of wounds by mud, soil, shrapnel and fragments of clothing. They should also know how debridement removed infected tissue and how the Carrel–Dakin method used sterilised salt solution to clean wounds.


Its recent indirect appearances prevent it from being the strongest prediction, but it remains likely.


Topics that are less likely

The following topics should still be revised, but their recent appearances make them weaker predictions:

  • Blood transfusions and blood storage: examined in 2021, 2025 and 2026.

  • Casualty Clearing Stations: examined in 2024 and 2026.

  • Transporting wounded soldiers: examined in 2023 and 2026.

  • Hospital care in c1700–c1900: examined repeatedly in 2020, 2025 and 2026.

  • Medieval religious explanations and the Four Humours: central to the 2025 and 2026 papers.

  • Pasteur and Germ Theory: examined in 2022 and 2025.

  • The NHS and access to care: examined in 2023, 2025 and 2026.

  • General scientific and technological progress after 1900: directly examined in 2020 and 2026.

  • Comparisons involving infectious disease and prevention: this area has dominated the four-mark comparison question since 2022.


Our Warfare and British Society Predictions


Prediction 1: War reporting and changing attitudes towards warfare, c1700–present


Prediction: Very high


War reporting and its influence on popular attitudes is one of the clearest gaps in recent papers. The specification covers newspaper reporting and photography during the Crimean and Boer Wars, followed by censorship, propaganda and growing concern about casualties in the modern period. However, this has never been the main focus of a 16-mark question in the papers examined.


Changing attitudes in the modern period appeared as a 12-mark question in 2024, but the wider development of war reporting across c1700–present remains largely untested. Students should therefore revise how newspapers, photography, propaganda, censorship and television reporting changed the public’s understanding of war.


Prediction 2: Modern military technology and the changing nature of warfare


Prediction: Very high


Modern warfare contains several important developments that have not recently been examined together in depth. These include machine guns, tanks, aircraft, radar, chemical and nuclear weapons, computerised warfare, surveillance and precision-guided weapons.


The 2026 paper focused on the composition of the modern army rather than the wider impact of modern technology. The last major question centred on the impact of a particular weapon across c1700–present was the rifle question in 2023. This leaves considerable scope for a question on aircraft, tanks, surveillance or high-tech warfare.

Students should be prepared to compare the industrial warfare of the First World War with the computerised and surveillance-based warfare used in Iraq.


Prediction 3: The Western Front, the Somme and the Iraq War


Prediction: High


The two modern case studies have received surprisingly little direct higher-mark coverage. The Somme appeared in a four-mark comparison involving commanders in 2020, while Iraq appeared in another four-mark comparison in 2024. Neither has been the central focus of a 12- or 16-mark question in the papers.


A future question could examine the importance of leadership, weaponry, tactics, logistics or technology in determining the outcome of warfare. Students should revise trench warfare, attrition, Haig’s leadership and the problems faced at the Somme, alongside aerial support, surveillance, precision weapons and guerrilla resistance in Iraq.


Prediction 4: The impact of warfare on civilians in the medieval and early modern periods


Prediction: High


The civilian experience of warfare has appeared in comparison questions, particularly in 2023 and 2025. However, it has received much less higher-mark coverage than weapons or army composition.


There has been no substantial question focusing specifically on feudal duties, army plunder, recruitment and requisitioning across c1250–c1700. This makes the changing impact of warfare on ordinary communities an important topic to revise.

Students should understand how civilians could be required to provide military service, money, food, accommodation, horses and equipment, as well as how they could suffer from plunder and destruction caused by armies.


Prediction 5: Recruitment, training and the development of a professional army


Prediction: High


Recruitment and training have appeared less frequently than weapons and army composition. The early modern period was tested in a 12-mark question in 2022, while conscription was examined in 2025 and medieval versus modern recruitment appeared in 2026. Nevertheless, the longer development from feudal service to a trained, standing and professional army remains a possible focus.


Students should revise:

  • Recruitment through medieval feudal obligations

  • The increasing use of paid soldiers and mercenaries

  • The training and discipline of the New Model Army

  • Cardwell’s reforms and professionalisation

  • The eventual development of a permanent professional army


The most likely focus would be the importance of the New Model Army or Cardwell’s reforms as a turning point in recruitment and training.


London and the Second World War predictions


Prediction 1: Dig for Victory and the use of London’s public spaces


Prediction: Very high


This is one of the most obvious untouched areas in the historic environment. None of the questions has directly focused on the use of Victoria Park, the Tower of London moat or other public spaces for food production.

Students should revise why the campaign was introduced, how public land was converted for agricultural use and how it contributed to London’s wider response to wartime shortages.


Prediction 2: Morale and disruption to daily life during the Blitz


Prediction: Very high


Although leisure activities were tested in 2022 and again as a short question in 2026, the wider question of civilian morale has not been examined directly. This includes disruption to work, transport and daily routines, as well as government fears that sustained bombing might damage morale.


This topic would be particularly suitable for a source enquiry using Mass Observation reports, personal accounts, government records, photographs or newspapers.


Prediction 3: V1 and V2 attacks, including the attack on Deptford


Prediction: High


The 2026 paper asked about types of bombs used against London, which slightly reduces the likelihood of another general question about bombs. However, the later V1 and V2 campaign—and especially the V2 attack on Deptford in 1944—has not been directly examined as a case study.


Students should revise the speed and unpredictability of V2 rockets, the lack of warning, the destruction caused at Deptford and the difficulties involved in defending London against these new weapons.


Prediction 4: London’s response to the war


Prediction: High


Several parts of London’s response remain underused, including the continued presence of the Royal Family, government ministers remaining in the capital and the symbolic importance of maintaining national leadership.


The Royal Family appeared in 2020 and the Cabinet War Rooms appeared in 2025, but the wider significance of government remaining in London could still form a source enquiry or feature question.


Our Anglo-Saxon and Norman England Predictions


Prediction 1: The Revolt of the Earls, 1075


Prediction: Very high


This is probably the strongest overall prediction. It is a complete specification section covering:

  • Reasons for the revolt

  • Features of the revolt

  • Reasons for its defeat

  • Effects of its failure


Despite this, it has not appeared as a main question in any of the papers. It could support either a feature question or a full 16-mark judgement question.


Possible questions include:

  • Describe one feature of the Revolt of the Earls.

  • “Lack of support was the main reason for the failure of the Revolt of the Earls.” How far do you agree?

  • “William’s response was the main reason the Revolt of the Earls failed.” How far do you agree?

  • “The most important effect of the Revolt of the Earls was the decline of the Anglo-Saxon aristocracy.” How far do you agree?


Students should revise Ralph de Gael, Roger de Breteuil, Waltheof, the limited Danish intervention and the response led by Lanfranc, Odo and Geoffrey of Coutances.


Prediction 2: Normanisation and reform of the Church


Prediction: Very high


The Church is one of the largest remaining gaps. There has not been a full question on:

  • The relationship between Church and government

  • Stigand’s removal

  • Lanfranc’s appointment and reforms

  • Normanisation of senior Church positions

  • Changes to Church organisation and discipline


Lanfranc appeared in a 2026 prompt, but only in connection with the 1087 succession dispute. That does not amount to proper coverage of Church reform.


Possible questions include:

  • Describe one feature of Lanfranc’s reforms.

  • Explain why William changed the leadership of the English Church.

  • “Lanfranc was the main reason the English Church changed under Norman rule.” How far do you agree?

  • “The appointment of Norman bishops was the most important change to the Church.” How far do you agree?


Prediction 3: The Witan, Harold’s accession and the succession crisis


Prediction: Very high


Edgar the Aethling’s claim appeared in 2024, but several connected areas remain underexamined:

  • Edward’s death without a clear heir

  • The role of the Witan

  • Harold’s coronation

  • Why Harold was selected

  • The motives and claims of William and Harald Hardrada


This is especially attractive for the 12-mark question because the last two 12-mark questions tested the House of Godwin and Hastings. A move to another part of Key Topic 1 would make sense.


Possible questions include:

  • Explain why there was a succession crisis in 1066.

  • Explain why Harold Godwinson became king.

  • Explain why the Witan supported Harold’s accession.

  • Explain why William believed he had a strong claim to the English throne.


Prediction 4: Harold Godwinson’s embassy to Normandy


Prediction: Very high


The embassy has not appeared as the central focus of any question. Students should understand:

  • Why Harold travelled to Normandy

  • His capture by Guy of Ponthieu

  • William’s role in securing his release

  • Harold’s alleged oath

  • How William later used the embassy to support his claim


It is particularly suited to a two-mark feature question, although it could be incorporated into a question about William’s claim or the causes of the Norman invasion.

Prediction 5: Changes in landownership, 1066–87


Prediction: Very high


Landownership has appeared as supporting material, especially in questions about resistance, but it has not received a full standalone question.

Students should revise:

  • Confiscation of land following rebellions

  • Redistribution to William’s Norman followers

  • The decline of Anglo-Saxon landholders

  • William’s control over land grants

  • Forfeiture

  • The connection between landownership, rebellion and Norman control


A possible question could be: “Anglo-Saxon resistance was the main reason for changes in landownership after 1066.” How far do you agree?


Prediction 6: Hereward the Wake and the rebellion at Ely


Prediction: High


Although broad Anglo-Saxon resistance has appeared several times, Hereward’s rebellion has not been examined independently. This distinction matters: Edexcel can return to a broad area through a previously untested case study.


Students should revise Hereward, Ely’s defensive geography, Danish involvement, Morcar’s participation and William’s methods of defeating the rebellion.


Prediction 7: Edgar the Aethling and the rebellions in the North


Prediction: High


Edgar appeared in the 2024 question about rival claims, but his role in the northern rebellions has not been the main focus. The causes, Danish involvement, Norman responses and consequences remain plausible.


However, the Harrying of the North was tested in 2025 and 2026, so a question specifically centred on the Harrying is much less likely.


Lowest-priority predictions

These topics must still be revised, but the combination of frequency and recency makes them less likely to dominate the 2027 paper.

Topic

Why it is less likely

Castles

Examined prominently in 2023, 2024, 2025 and 2026

House of Godwin

Main focus in 2023 and 2026, as well as the duplicated 2020 material

Battle of Hastings

Tested in 2023 and 2025

Harrying of the North

Used prominently in both 2025 and 2026

William and Robert’s relationship

Tested repeatedly in 2023 and 2024

The 1087 succession dispute

Main focus of the 2026 Question 4

Domesday Book

Main 16-mark question in 2025

The forest

Feature question in 2026

Broad reasons for castle-building

Main questions in 2024 and 2026

Broad failure of Anglo-Saxon resistance

Main 16-mark question in 2025


Our Elizabethan England Predictions


Prediction 1: The Ridolfi and Throckmorton Plots and Walsingham’s spy network


Prediction: Very high


This is arguably the clearest gap in the recent papers.


The Babington Plot appeared as a short question in 2021, while the Revolt of the Northern Earls and the plots were considered more broadly in 2022. However:

  • The Ridolfi Plot has not been the central focus of a question.

  • The Throckmorton Plot has not been the central focus of a question.

  • Walsingham’s spy network has not been tested directly.

  • The 2026 paper returned to the Northern Earls rather than the later Catholic plots.


This leaves the plots and Walsingham as one of the most under-tested areas of Key Topic 2.


Students should revise:

  • The aims, participants and outcomes of all three plots

  • The involvement of Mary, Queen of Scots

  • Foreign and papal involvement

  • Walsingham’s agents, informers and interception of letters

  • Why the plots failed

  • How significant each plot was

  • Why the Babington Plot led to Mary’s execution


A possible question could ask whether Walsingham’s spy network was the main reason Catholic plots failed or whether one particular plot represented the greatest threat to Elizabeth.


Prediction 2: Leisure, sport, pastimes and the theatre


Prediction: Very high


Leisure has not appeared since the 2021 examination, when students compared the leisure activities of the rich and poor. By 2027, this will represent a six-exam gap.


Within Elizabethan society:

  • Poverty appeared in 2022, 2025 and 2026.

  • Education appeared in 2024.

  • Exploration appeared in 2023 and 2025.

  • Virginia appeared in 2024 and 2026.

  • Leisure has not appeared since 2021.

This makes leisure the most overdue part of Key Topic 3.


Students should revise:

  • Popular sports such as football, wrestling and archery

  • Hunting, hawking and other activities associated with the wealthy

  • The growth and popularity of the theatre

  • Opposition to the theatre

  • Similarities and differences between the leisure activities of rich and poor people


This could appear as a feature question or as a 16-mark judgement question about the importance, popularity or social divisions surrounding Elizabethan leisure.


Prediction 3: Drake’s circumnavigation of the globe


Prediction: Very high

Exploration appeared broadly in 2023 and as a short feature question in 2025. However, Drake’s circumnavigation has never been the central focus of a question in the papers.

This distinction is important. A broad topic may have appeared recently while a specific specification point within it remains untested.


Students should revise:

  • Drake’s motives for the voyage

  • The search for new trading opportunities

  • Rivalry with Spain

  • Drake’s attacks on Spanish ships and settlements

  • The financial rewards of the voyage

  • The significance of Elizabeth knighting Drake

  • The effect of the voyage on England’s wealth, prestige and relations with Spain


A likely question could ask why Drake’s circumnavigation was significant or whether trade was the main reason for the voyage.


Prediction 4: Privateering and Drake’s raid on Cadiz


Prediction: Very high


Relations with Spain have appeared frequently, including:

  • The causes of war in 2021

  • English involvement in the Netherlands in 2022 and 2023

  • Deteriorating relations with Spain in 2025

  • The Spanish Armada in 2024 and 2026


However, two specific areas remain comparatively under-tested:

  • The importance of privateering

  • Drake’s raid on Cadiz in 1587

Although privateering may have been used as supporting evidence in previous Spain questions, it has not been the clear central focus. The Cadiz raid has not received a direct question in the papers listed.


Students should revise:

  • Why Elizabeth unofficially supported privateers

  • Drake’s attacks on Spanish ships and ports

  • The financial importance of Spanish treasure

  • How privateering worsened relations with Philip II

  • What happened during the Cadiz raid

  • How the raid disrupted and delayed Spanish invasion preparations

  • The limitations of Drake’s achievement


Because the Armada was tested in 2026, another direct Armada question is less likely. A question on Cadiz or privateering would allow Edexcel to test a different part of the conflict with Spain.


Prediction 5: Mary, Queen of Scots: her claim and relations with Elizabeth, 1568–69


Prediction: High


The last direct question about relations between Elizabeth and Mary appeared in 2020. Mary’s execution was then tested in 2023, while Mary also appeared within questions about the Northern Earls and Catholic threats.


Therefore, Mary has not been completely absent. Nevertheless, the specific events of 1568–69 and the difficulties created by her arrival in England remain relatively overdue.


Students should revise:

  • Why Mary had a claim to the English throne

  • Why her claim threatened Elizabeth’s legitimacy

  • Mary’s escape from Scotland and arrival in England

  • Elizabeth’s possible responses

  • The Casket Letters

  • Why Elizabeth refused to restore Mary to the Scottish throne

  • Why Elizabeth kept Mary imprisoned

  • How Mary became a focus for English Catholics and foreign powers


This could appear as a short feature question or a longer question about why Mary’s arrival created a serious problem for Elizabeth.


Prediction 6: The role of the Church of England in Elizabethan society


Prediction: High for a short question


The role of the Church was last tested directly in 2020. Questions in 2024 and 2025 concentrated more heavily on challenges to the religious settlement and whether the settlement was successful.


The Church’s wider social role is therefore a plausible short-question topic.


Students should revise its role in:

  • Conducting weekly religious services

  • Enforcing religious conformity

  • Recording baptisms, marriages and burials

  • Providing local education

  • Supporting poor relief

  • Communicating government instructions

  • Promoting loyalty to Elizabeth


Because the religious settlement was tested in 2025, a broad 16-mark question on its success is less likely. A narrower feature question on the Church’s role is more plausible.


Topics less likely to receive a major question


  1. The Spanish Armada: The defeat of the Armada was tested in 2024 and again as a 16-mark question in 2026. A third major Armada question within four examination series would be possible but comparatively unlikely. Students must still know the Armada because it may appear in a short question or as supporting evidence in a broader question about Spain.

  2. The Revolt of the Northern Earls: the revolt was tested as part of a 16-mark question in 2022 and then directly as the 12-mark question in 2026. Its very recent appearance makes another central question unlikely.

  3. Elizabeth’s general problems on accession: This area appeared in 2021, 2022 and 2026. It is one of the most frequently tested parts of Key Topic 1. A narrower question about marriage or gender remains possible, but another broad judgement about Elizabeth’s main problem in 1558 is unlikely.

  4. Poverty and vagabondage: The treatment of the poor appeared in 2022, the causes of poverty appeared as a 16-mark question in 2025, and poverty appeared again as a feature question in 2026. This is currently one of the least likely areas to receive another major question.

  5. The attempted colonisation of Virginia: The failure of the first colony was tested in 2024, while Virginia returned as a feature question in 2026. It is therefore less likely to receive a major question in 2027.


Our Cold War Predictions


Prediction 1: The Hungarian Uprising of 1956


Prediction: Very high


The Hungarian Uprising is the clearest gap in the papers. It has not been directly examined between 2020 and 2026, despite being a major part of Key Topic 1.


Students should revise:

  • The causes of the uprising

  • Rakosi’s government and Soviet control

  • Khrushchev’s Secret Speech

  • The demonstrations of October 1956

  • Imre Nagy’s reforms

  • Hungary’s proposed withdrawal from the Warsaw Pact

  • Khrushchev’s decision to invade

  • The consequences of the Soviet response

  • The limited international reaction


This topic could appear as:

  • A consequence question on the Soviet invasion of Hungary

  • A narrative account of the key events of the Hungarian Uprising

  • An importance question on the uprising or Khrushchev’s response


The narrative question is especially plausible because Hungary provides a clear sequence of interconnected events.


Prediction 2: The Truman Doctrine and the development of opposing blocs


Prediction: Very high


The Marshall Plan appeared as an importance question in 2022, but the Truman Doctrine has not been directly examined in the seven series. The wider development of opposing American and Soviet blocs between 1947 and 1949 is therefore an important area to revise.


Students should revise:

  • Truman’s policy of containment

  • American assistance to Greece and Turkey

  • The Marshall Plan

  • Stalin’s reaction to American policies

  • Cominform and Comecon

  • The formation of NATO

  • The increasing division of Europe


A question could focus specifically on the importance or consequences of the Truman Doctrine. Alternatively, these developments could form part of a narrative account covering the years 1947–49.


Prediction 3: The Helsinki Accords and SALT II


Prediction: Very high


Détente appeared in 2021 and 2023, while SALT I appeared in 2024. However, the Helsinki Accords and SALT II have not been directly examined in the papers.

This makes the less frequently tested elements of détente particularly important for 2027.


Students should revise:

  • The reasons the superpowers pursued détente

  • The terms and importance of SALT I

  • The security, cooperation and human-rights agreements at Helsinki

  • The strengths and limitations of the Helsinki Accords

  • The terms of SALT II

  • Why the US Senate did not ratify SALT II

  • How the invasion of Afghanistan ended the progress of détente


The most likely form would be an importance question on the Helsinki Accords or a narrative account analysing attempts to reduce superpower tensions during the 1970s.


Prediction 4: The Long and Novikov Telegrams and Soviet satellite states


Prediction: High


The worsening of relations in 1945–47 was used for the 2023 narrative question. However, the Long Telegram, Novikov Telegram and establishment of Soviet satellite states have not received their own direct questions.


Potsdam was tested in both 2025 and 2026, making another conference-focused question less likely. Edexcel could instead move to the ideological and diplomatic developments that followed the conferences.


Students should revise:

  • George Kennan’s interpretation of Soviet expansion

  • Novikov’s interpretation of American intentions

  • How the telegrams increased mutual suspicion

  • Stalin’s creation of communist governments in Eastern Europe

  • Why the USA regarded the satellite states as evidence of Soviet expansionism

  • How these developments contributed to containment


These could appear as consequence or importance questions.


Prediction 5: The summit meetings of 1959–61


Prediction: High


The summit meetings were last tested directly in 2020. They were relevant to the 2022 Berlin narrative, but have not recently been the central focus of a question.

This is now one of the longest gaps among the Key Topic 2 subjects.


Students should revise:

  • The Geneva Summit of 1959

  • Khrushchev’s visit to Camp David

  • The collapse of the Paris Summit following the U-2 incident

  • The Vienna Summit of 1961

  • Kennedy and Khrushchev’s positions over Berlin

  • How the failure of the summits contributed to the Berlin Wall


An importance question on the summit meetings is more likely than another broad question on the Berlin Wall itself.


Prediction 6: Reagan and Gorbachev’s role in reducing tensions


Prediction: High


Reagan’s actions appeared in 2026, while Gorbachev’s new thinking appeared in 2022. However, the relationship between Reagan and Gorbachev—and their combined role in reducing tensions—has not been tested directly in the papers.


Students should revise:

  • Gorbachev’s reasons for seeking improved relations

  • Reagan’s changing approach towards the Soviet Union

  • The Geneva Summit

  • The Reykjavik Summit

  • The Washington Summit

  • The INF Treaty

  • The extent to which Reagan and Gorbachev individually contributed to ending the Cold War


The recent Reagan question reduces the likelihood of another question solely on Reagan. A broader question about the importance of Gorbachev or Reagan and Gorbachev together remains plausible.


Our American West Predictions


Prediction 1: The growth of the cattle industry, especially McCoy, Goodnight and Abilene


Prediction: Very high


This is probably the strongest overall prediction. John Iliff appeared in 2023, while the importance of the railroad network to the cattle industry appeared in 2024. However, there has not been a direct question covering the overall development of the cattle industry before 1876.


Joseph McCoy, Charles Goodnight, the Goodnight–Loving Trail and the development of Abilene have not been tested directly in any of the papers. The topic is also particularly suitable for a narrative account because students can explain a clear chain of development:

  • The growth of demand for beef

  • Goodnight and the cattle trails

  • McCoy’s development of Abilene

  • The use of railroads to transport cattle

  • The expansion of the cattle industry

A possible question could be:

Write a narrative account analysing the key developments in the growth of the cattle industry in the years c1865–76.

Prediction 2: Little Crow’s War and conflict on the Plains, 1862–68


Prediction: Very high


Little Crow’s War is one of the most significant named events in the specification that has not appeared in any of the seven papers. Sand Creek was tested in 2024 and Red Cloud’s War in 2022 and 2025, but Little Crow’s War remains a conspicuous gap.

The wider sequence of conflict from 1862 to 1868 has also not been used for a narrative account. This would allow Edexcel to connect:

  • Little Crow’s War

  • The Sand Creek Massacre

  • Red Cloud’s War

  • The second Fort Laramie Treaty


This topic could therefore appear as a consequence, importance or narrative question.

Possible questions include:

  • Explain one consequence of Little Crow’s War.

  • Explain the importance of Little Crow’s War for relations between Indigenous peoples and the US government.

  • Write a narrative account analysing the key developments in conflict on the Plains in the years 1862–68.


Prediction 3: The Exoduster movement and the Oklahoma Land Rush


Prediction: Very high


Neither the Exoduster movement of 1879 nor the Oklahoma Land Rush of 1893 has appeared in the papers. This means that an entire part of the later-settlement section remains untested.


These developments could be examined individually through consequence or importance questions. They could also be combined into a narrative account about the continuation of western settlement and the closure of the Indian Frontier.

Possible questions include:

  • Explain one consequence of the Oklahoma Land Rush of 1893.

  • Explain the importance of the Exoduster movement for settlement in the West.

  • Write a narrative account analysing the key developments in western settlement in the years 1879–93.


Prediction 4: Lawlessness in early western towns and attempts to deal with it


Prediction: Very high


Edexcel has repeatedly examined law and order after 1876:

  • Federal government involvement appeared in 2022.

  • Sheriffs and marshals appeared in 2024.

  • Law and order between 1876 and 1895 formed the 2020 narrative question.

  • The Johnson County War appeared in 2026.


By contrast, lawlessness in the early towns and settlements before 1862 has not been tested directly. This makes early lawlessness considerably more likely than another broad question about sheriffs and marshals.

Students should revise mining towns, rapid population growth, weak government, claim jumping, vigilantes and other community attempts to establish order.


A possible question could be:

Explain the importance of attempts to tackle lawlessness in the early settlements of the West.

Prediction 5: Indigenous beliefs, tribal structures and attitudes to land


The importance of horses was tested in 2023, while the extermination of the buffalo appeared in 2024. However, the broader beliefs and social structures of Indigenous peoples remain largely untouched.


Students should revise:

  • Tribal and band structures

  • The importance of chiefs and councils

  • Beliefs about land and nature

  • Attitudes towards property

  • Warrior societies and attitudes to warfare

  • The importance of mobility and communal cooperation


The most likely focus would be the importance of these beliefs or structures for the Indigenous way of life, rather than a general descriptive question.


Prediction 6: US government policy before 1876


Prediction: High


Several elements of early government policy remain underused. The Indian Appropriations Act was last tested in 2020, while the Permanent Indian Frontier and the second Fort Laramie Treaty have never been tested directly in the papers.


The first Fort Laramie Treaty was tested in 2026, so an immediate repeat of that exact treaty is less likely. However, Edexcel could move to the Indian Appropriations Act or the second treaty to examine the changing nature of government policy.

Possible questions include:

  • Explain one consequence of the Indian Appropriations Act of 1851.

  • Explain the importance of the second Fort Laramie Treaty for relations between Indigenous peoples and the US government.


Our Russia and the Soviet Union Predictions


Prediction 1: Why the Bolsheviks won the Civil War


This is the strongest prediction, particularly for the interpretation enquiry or one of the 12-mark questions.


Questions about why the Civil War began appeared in 2020 and 2025. However, the separate specification topic of why the Bolsheviks won has not been directly examined in the papers provided. This leaves several important areas relatively untouched:

  • Trotsky’s leadership of the Red Army

  • Bolshevik control of central Russia

  • Bolshevik organisation and discipline

  • weaknesses and divisions among the Whites

  • the impact of foreign intervention


It would also work especially well as an interpretation question because historians can disagree over whether Bolshevik strengths or White weaknesses were more important.


Prediction 2: Early Bolshevik consolidation and the Treaty of Brest-Litovsk


This is one of the least directly tested parts of the specification.


The Treaty of Brest-Litovsk appeared as a prompt in the 2020 and 2025 questions on why the Civil War began. However, there has not been a direct question on:

  • why Lenin accepted the treaty

  • the treaty’s terms and significance

  • reactions to the treaty

  • the early Bolshevik decrees

  • the closure of the Constituent Assembly

  • the execution of the Tsar and his family

  • how the Bolsheviks consolidated power during 1917–18


Because it has appeared only as supporting material rather than as the main focus, this remains a strong possibility for either the inference or 12-mark question.


Most likely question forms:

  • Explain why the Bolsheviks signed the Treaty of Brest-Litovsk.

  • Explain why the Bolsheviks were able to consolidate their power in 1917–18.

  • Give two things you can infer from Source A about reactions to the Treaty of Brest-Litovsk.

  • Give two things you can infer from Source A about the closure of the Constituent Assembly.


Prediction 3: the immediate causes of the February Revolution


The impact of the First World War on Tsarist Russia was the interpretation topic in 2025. This makes another broad question on wartime problems less likely. However, the immediate events of February 1917 have still not been directly examined.


Students should therefore revise:

  • strikes and demonstrations in Petrograd

  • bread shortages

  • the participation of women and workers

  • the Petrograd garrison’s mutiny

  • the Tsar’s absence from Petrograd

  • Nicholas II’s abdication


This topic is particularly suitable for a 12-mark causation question. Its chances are slightly reduced by the 2025 enquiry, but the distinction between the general impact of the war and the immediate outbreak of revolution keeps it among the stronger predictions.


Prediction 4: The Red Terror, the Cheka and the Kronstadt Mutiny


These topics have received limited direct coverage.


The Kronstadt Mutiny appeared as a prompt in the 2023 question on the introduction of the NEP. The broader challenges facing the Bolsheviks in 1921–24 were also tested in 2021. Nevertheless, there has not been a direct question centred on:

  • the purpose and methods of the Cheka

  • the reasons for the Red Terror

  • the importance of the Kronstadt Mutiny

  • the Bolsheviks’ movement towards totalitarian government

  • the centralisation of power under Lenin


Stalin’s use of terror was examined in 2023 and 2026, but Lenin’s use of terror is a separate specification topic. Students should be careful not to treat Stalinist terror as covering the earlier Red Terror.


Prediction 5: The Cult of Stalin, propaganda and censorship


The use of propaganda was included in the 2025 question about how Stalin established his dictatorship. However, the Cult of Stalin has never been the central focus of a question in the papers provided.


Several parts of this topic remain underexamined:

  • why Stalin introduced a cult of personality

  • how Stalin’s image was presented

  • censorship of the media

  • socialist realism

  • control of education and religion

  • the significance of the 1936 Constitution


Because the broader establishment of Stalin’s dictatorship appeared in 2025, another general dictatorship question is less likely. A narrower question on the Cult, censorship or the 1936 Constitution remains plausible.


Most likely question forms:

  • Explain why Stalin developed a cult of personality.

  • Explain why propaganda was important to Stalin’s control of the Soviet Union.

  • Give two things you can infer from Source A about the Cult of Stalin.

  • Give two things you can infer from Source A about Soviet propaganda.


Topics assessed as less likely to appear prominently

  1. Bolshevik success in October 1917

  2. Stalin’s terror and the purges

  3. Industrialisation and the Five-Year Plans

  4. Collectivisation

  5. Women in the Soviet Union

  6. The Provisional Government and October Revolution


Our Weimar and Nazi Germay Predictions


Prediction 1: The creation of the Nazi dictatorship, 1933–34

This is arguably the strongest prediction for 2027.

Students should revise:

  • the Reichstag Fire;

  • the Reichstag Fire Decree;

  • the Enabling Act;

  • the banning of political parties and trade unions;

  • the Night of the Long Knives;

  • the death of Hindenburg;

  • Hitler becoming Führer;

  • the army’s oath of allegiance.


The Reichstag Fire appeared in the 4-mark inference question in 2021, but the broader process through which Hitler established his dictatorship has not been the main focus of a 12- or 16-mark question between 2020 and 2026. Important elements such as the Enabling Act and Night of the Long Knives remain especially under-tested.


Prediction 2: Nazi persecution of Jewish people and other minorities


Students should revise:

  • Nazi racial beliefs;

  • the treatment of Roma and Sinti, Slavs, homosexuals and people with disabilities;

  • the boycott of Jewish businesses in 1933;

  • the Nuremberg Laws;

  • Kristallnacht;

  • the reasons why persecution intensified between 1933 and 1939.


The persecution of minorities has been remarkably underused. Kristallnacht appeared as a narrow 4-mark inference question in 2020, but persecution has not been the subject of a 12-mark causation question or the main 16-mark interpretation enquiry during the seven exam series provided. Its last direct appearance was also the earliest paper in the dataset.


This makes persecution a strong possibility for either the source inference question or the main interpretation enquiry.


Prediction 3: Stresemann and Weimar recovery, 1924–29


Students should revise:

  • the Rentenmark;

  • the Dawes Plan;

  • American loans and investment;

  • the Young Plan;

  • the Locarno Pact;

  • Germany joining the League of Nations;

  • the strengths and limitations of the recovery.


Economic recovery was last tested directly in the 2020 12-mark question. It has therefore been absent as a main focus for six subsequent exam series. More importantly, Stresemann’s foreign-policy achievements—especially Locarno and entry into the League of Nations—have not been directly tested in the papers listed.


Predictio 4: The Munich Putsch and its consequences


Students should revise:

  • why Hitler launched the Munich Putsch;

  • the events and failure of the putsch;

  • Hitler’s trial and imprisonment;

  • Mein Kampf;

  • the decision to pursue power legally;

  • the longer-term consequences for the Nazi Party.


The Munich Putsch has not appeared as a direct main question between 2020 and 2026. The 2023 question examined why the Nazi Party was reorganised between 1924 and 1928, while the 2024 inference question concerned how Hitler increased early support. Neither directly tested the reasons for, events of or consequences of the putsch.


Prediction 5: The Churches and the Nazi regime


Students should revise:

  • the Concordat with the Catholic Church;

  • Nazi attempts to control Christianity;

  • the Reich Church;

  • the German Christians;

  • the Confessing Church;

  • Pastor Niemöller;

  • the reasons for religious opposition;

  • the limitations of Church resistance.


The Churches have not been directly tested in any of the 2020–2026 questions listed. Opposition from young people appeared in 2025, general methods of control appeared in 2024 and dealing with opposition appeared in 2026. A question specifically about Church relations or Church opposition would therefore allow Edexcel to test a neglected part of the same key topic without simply repeating those recent questions.


Topics less likely to be the main focus in 2027

These topics should still be revised, but their recent appearance makes them weaker predictions:

  • The problems of 1923: the full 2026 interpretation enquiry, following hyperinflation in the 2025 inference question.

  • Why Hitler became Chancellor: the 2022 interpretation enquiry and a 2026 12-mark question.

  • Women: a 2026 12-mark question.

  • Growth in Nazi support, 1929–32: a 2025 12-mark question.

  • Nazi living standards: the 2025 interpretation enquiry.

  • Opposition from young people: tested directly in 2025.

  • Education and the Hitler Youth: appeared in 2022 and 2023.

  • General Nazi control and opposition: the 2024 interpretation enquiry and 2026 inference question.


Our USA Conflict Home and Abroad Predictions


Prediction 1: Nixon, Vietnamisation and US withdrawal, 1969–73


Prediction: Very likely


This is the strongest prediction because Nixon’s handling of the war has not been directly examined between 2020 and 2026. Recent questions have instead covered early US involvement, escalation under Johnson, US military tactics, opposition and the peace negotiations. This leaves Vietnamisation, the Nixon Doctrine, troop withdrawals and Nixon’s expansion of the war into Cambodia and Laos as a major gap in recent coverage.


Prediction 2: Civil rights after 1965


Prediction: Very likely


The later civil-rights movement has been significantly under-examined. The riots of 1965–67, the Kerner Report, King’s campaign in the North and the overall extent of civil-rights progress by 1975 have not been the direct focus of a recent question. By contrast, recent papers have concentrated on education, Black Power, Martin Luther King, Freedom Summer and the Montgomery Bus Boycott. This makes the later civil-rights period a strong possibility for 2027.


Prediction 3: The sit-in movement and Freedom Riders, 1960–62


Prediction: Very likely


Greensboro, the sit-in movement and the Freedom Riders have not received a dedicated question in the papers from 2020 to 2026. They represent one of the clearest gaps in the civil-rights section. Although the 2026 enquiry covered progress in education between 1954 and 1962, it did not focus directly on the sit-ins, CORE, the Freedom Riders or the violence at Anniston.


Prediction 4: Support for the Vietnam War

Prediction: Very likely


Opposition to the Vietnam War has been examined repeatedly, including in 2022 and again as an option in 2026. However, support for the war has not been directly tested. This makes fear of communism, the “silent majority” and the hard-hat demonstrations particularly important areas to revise. Edexcel may now turn to why many Americans continued to support the war despite growing anti-war protests.


Prediction 5: The Tet Offensive and its significance


Prediction: Likely


The Tet Offensive is a major turning point in the specification but has not been the direct focus of a question in the papers. It is especially suitable for a source or interpretation enquiry because it can be viewed as a military defeat for the Vietcong but a political and psychological victory that weakened American confidence in the war.


Prediction 6: The NAACP and CORE


Prediction: Likely


The contribution of the NAACP and CORE has not been examined directly. These organisations could appear in a question about why the civil-rights movement made progress or how its methods developed. Students should revise the NAACP’s use of legal challenges and CORE’s involvement in non-violent direct action, especially the Freedom Rides.


Topics less likely to appear


The least likely major topics are those examined most recently:

  • Progress in education for Black Americans — the entire 2026 interpretation enquiry.

  • Early US involvement under Eisenhower and Kennedy — examined in 2026.

  • Opposition to the Vietnam War — offered as a Question 2 choice in 2026 and previously examined in 2022.

  • Escalation under Johnson — the complete 2025 interpretation enquiry.

  • The Montgomery Bus Boycott — examined in 2025.

  • Black Power and the Black Panthers — examined in 2022, 2025 and 2026.

  • Martin Luther King’s achievements — the complete 2024 interpretation enquiry.


Overall, the strongest areas to prioritise are Nixon and Vietnamisation, civil rights after 1965, the sit-ins and Freedom Riders, support for the Vietnam War, and the Tet Offensive.

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