GCSE History Exam Predictions 2025: Conflict and tension between East and West 1945–1972 (AQA)

Let’s sit down together (figuratively!) and take a thoughtful, measured look at the AQA Conflict and Tension: The Cold War 1945–1972 paper. I’ve carefully reviewed the past papers to help guide your final revision push.

So, What Topics Have Had Their Turn Recently?

Looking back at the papers from the last few years, certain events and themes have featured quite heavily, especially in those chunkier 8-mark narrative questions and the big 16-mark essays:

• Czechoslovakia (1968): This came up strongly in 2023 as the main essay topic and was also a source focus in 2021. It feels like this one has had a good airing recently.

• Détente/Easing Tensions: This was the narrative account ('write an account') focus last year (2023).

• The Space Race: Popped up in 2023 for the source utility question.

• Hungary (1956) & The U2 Crisis: These were key features of the 2022 paper (narrative and essay respectively),and the U2 Crisis also featured in 2020.

• Berlin Blockade/Airlift: Had its turn in the source question spotlight in 2022.

• NATO & Truman Doctrine: These cornerstones of early Cold War policy were central to questions in 2021.

• The Atom Bomb's initial impact: Was an essay focus back in 2020.

  
  

Now, this doesn't mean you can ignore these topics! They might still appear in source questions (Q1/Q2) or be needed for context in an essay. But, my gut feeling is they are less likely to be the main event for the big Q3 or Q4 questions this time around.

Spotting the Gaps: Where Could the Focus Shift?

This is where it gets interesting. What key parts of the Cold War story haven't been the headline act in the exam hall for a while?

1. Events in Asia (Korea & Vietnam): Honestly, this feels like the biggest gap. The syllabus specifically mentions the significance of events in Asia – the Communist revolution in China, the Korean War, and the Vietnam War (within our timeframe). Yet, none of these have been the core focus of a narrative or essay question in the last four years. My hunch is strong here – be prepared to write about how conflicts in Korea or Vietnam seriously ramped up tensions between the USA and USSR.

2. The Arms Race: Yes, the Space Race was covered recently, but what about the terrifying build-up of nuclear weapons itself? The ICBMs, Polaris submarines, the sheer paranoia and expense of it all. While linked to other events (like Cuba), the Arms Race as a central theme driving the Cold War feels overdue for a Q3 or Q4 focus.

3. The Cuban Missile Crisis: Okay, 'Events in Cuba' was a Q3 narrative back in 2020, covering the revolution and Bay of Pigs too. However, the Missile Crisis itself – those thirteen days on the brink – is such a pivotal moment.It feels ripe for a dedicated Q4 essay question exploring its causes, significance, or consequences as the mainpoint of tension.

4. The Berlin Wall: It popped up in a source question in 2021, but an account of why it was built and its impact, or an essay arguing about its significance in the early 60s? That feels like a distinct possibility. It’s such a powerful symbol of the Cold War divide.

5. The Early Days (Yalta/Potsdam/Soviet Expansion): While elements like the Atom Bomb (2020) and Stalin (source in 2022) have appeared, the actual conferences (Yalta/Potsdam) and the specific process of Soviet expansion across Eastern Europe (1945-48) haven't been the focus of a major question since 2020. Could AQA circle back to the very roots of the conflict? It's possible.

   
   

My Final Thoughts

So, if I were putting my revision energy somewhere specific for those bigger questions, I’d be paying very close attention to Asia (Korea/Vietnam), the Arms Race, and the Cuban Missile Crisis, with the Berlin Wall and the early origins as strong backup contenders.

BUT – and this is crucial – please don't just focus on these! This is just informed speculation. AQA might surprise us all. The best strategy is always to revise the whole course thoroughly. Understand the timeline, the key players, the causes and consequences of all the main events. Know how the different parts connect – you can't really understand Cuba without understanding the Arms Race, or Détente without understanding the tensions that came before.

If you're feeling a bit overwhelmed or unsure where to focus, our GCSE guides for AQA at Kingsbridge Education are packed with what you actually need such as clear summaries, countless model answers and integrated flashcards and quizzes to test yourself along the way. Find out more here: https://www.kingsbridgeeducation.co.uk

Good luck with your revision – you've got this! Go back through your notes, practice those source skills and plan a few essay answers.