AQA GCSE History 2026 Predictions

This year’s AQA GCSE History predictions are based on what we’ve seen as teachers and examiners: the recency of topics, how often they tend to cycle back, and the patterns across the past six exam series (2020-2025). Of course, you must revise the whole specification — nothing here is guaranteed — but these predictions can help you focus more effectively and avoid overlooking topics that may be more likely to appear. Use them as guidance, not a shortcut.

Topics (click to jump):

• Predictions for Germany, 1890–1945: Democracy and Dictatorship

• Predictions for Conflict and tension: The inter-war years, 1918–1939

• Predictions for Britain: Health and the People, c1000–present

• Predictions for Elizabethan England, c1568–1603

• Predictions for Norman England, c1066–1100

• Predictions for Britain: Power and the People, c1170–present

• Predictions for Britain: Migration, empires and the people: c790-present

• Predictions for America, 1920–1973: Opportunity and Inequality

• Predictions for Conflict and tension East and West, 1945–1972 (Cold War)

• Predictions for Conflict and tension: The First World War, 1894–1918

• Predictions for Conflict and Tension in Asia, 1950-1975

• Predictions for Medieval England — The Reign of Edward I, 1272–1307

Our Predictions for Germany, 1890–1945: Democracy and Dictatorship

The following sections highlight the least-used parts of the specification — and therefore are the topics we believe to be the strongest candidates for the next exam.

Prediction 1: Opposition and Resistance to the Nazis

Core content we recommend you to focus on

• Youth and student groups: White Rose, Edelweiss Pirates, Swing Youth

• Military resistance: July 1944 bomb plot

• Effectiveness of opposition; why opposition remained limited; Nazi responses

Although “opposition and resistance” is explicitly listed in the specification under Control, it has never been the main focus of Q1–3, Q5, or Q6 between 2020–25. At most, it appears as a supporting detail within police-state answers.

This makes it a very strong candidate for:

• Q1–3 Interpretations — e.g. “How far do these interpretations differ about opposition to the Nazis?”

• 12-mark comparative question — e.g. “Which posed the greater threat: youth resistance or army opposition?”

Prediction 2: Women in Nazi Germay

Core content we recommend you to focus on

• Nazi ideology: Kinder, Küche, Kirche

• Policies: marriage loans, Law for the Encouragement of Marriage, motherhood medals

• Employment restrictions and the shift during wartime

• Debate: did women’s lives improve or worsen?

Women” are explicitly written into the Social Policy bullet of the specification. Yet between 2020–25:

• No interpretations have been set on women

• No 4-marker or 8-marker has targeted them directly

• Only indirect coverage in the 2021 social-policies 12-marker

That makes this a prime candidate for:

Q5 — “In what ways were the lives of German women affected by Nazi policies?”

Q6 comparison — “Greater impact: policies towards women or policies towards youth?”

Prediction 3: Churches and Religion under the Nazis

Core content we recommend you to focus on

• Concordat with the Catholic Church

• Reich Church vs Confessing Church

• Religious dissent: Niemöller, Bonhoeffer

• Extent of resistance vs cooperation

“Control of churches and religion” is directly named in the specification, but has not been the main focus of any exam question from 2020–25.

Prediction 4: Failure of Weimar Democracy & Hitler’s Appointment as Chancellor (1933)

Core content we recommend you to focus on

• Weak coalition governments; Article 48 and emergency decrees

• Political impact of the Depression

• Role of Papen, Schleicher and Hindenburg (“backstairs intrigue”)

• Why Hitler was appointed, not elected dictator

Although the Depression and Nazi popularity have appeared frequently, the specific spec bullet: “the failure of Weimar democracy: the role of Papen and Hindenburg and Hitler’s appointment as Chancellor” has never been the focus of a 12-marker.

Recent coverage has been indirect only:

• 2022 interpretations — rise of the Nazis

• 2023 Q4 — establishing dictatorship after January 1933

Prediction 5: Experiences of Germans in the Second World War

Previously appeared as:

1. Q5 2020 — effects of the Second World War

2. Q4 2022 — problems Germans faced during the war

   
   

Could return as:

• a Q6 comparing different forms of wartime suffering

• a Q5 with a new angle (e.g. Allied bombing, rationing, refugees)

Lower Priority Topics

Still revise them, but they’re very unlikely to be the centre of another big question immediately.

1. Support for the Nazis / appeal of Hitler / rise to power

Heavily used: Interpretations 2021, 2022, 2025; Q6 2020.

2. Depression, 1929–32

Appears repeatedly across Q4, Q5, Q6 and interpretations.

3. Weimar early problems, 1919–23

Q6 in both 2023 and 2024.→ Extremely low chance for another major focus.

4. Stresemann Era & Weimar Culture, 1924–29

Q5 2021, Q6 2022, Q5 2024.→ Already rotated heavily.

5. Kaiser Wilhelm II & Pre-1914 Germany

Q4 2020 and Q4 2025.→ Recently used.

6. Nazi racial policy / Jews

Interpretations 2020, Q5 2025.→ Recently revisited, so unlikely for a third short-term appearance.

Our Predictions for Conflict and Tension: 1918–1939 (Inter-War)

Prediction 1: Responsibility for the Outbreak of War (Hitler, Stalin, Chamberlain & the Nazi–Soviet Pact)

The specification explicitly requires coverage of “responsibility for the outbreak of war, including that of key individuals: Hitler, Stalin and Chamberlain.”

Exam coverage so far:

• 2021 (8-mark): impact of the Nazi–Soviet Pact.

• 2025 (16-mark): appeasement as a cause of war — but this framed appeasement specifically, not overall responsibility.

Crucially, we have not yet seen a major evaluative question asking students to weigh Hitler’s aims, Stalin’s pact, and Chamberlain’s decisions directly against each other.

Expect a shift away from appeasement and towards:

• “Hitler was most responsible for the outbreak of war. How far do you agree?”

• or “The Nazi–Soviet Pact was the main reason for the outbreak of war.”

Prediction 2: The Collapse of the League in the 1930s

Abyssinia (2020), Manchuria (2025), and general League failure (2021) have all been tested. However, the Great Depression itself — as a structural cause that undermined the League — has never been the direct focus of a question.

The specification highlights “the effects of the Depression” alongside Abyssinia, Manchuria, and the League’s failure to prevent war.

Prediction 3: Diplomacy Outside the League: Locarno Treaties & Kellogg–Briand Pact

The specification requires understanding of diplomacy outside the League. These agreements have appeared only once so far — a 2023 4-mark source on Locarno. We believe this makes them likely to appear again, perhaps in a big-mark question.

Prediction 4: The Versailles Settlement — Strengths, Weaknesses & Wider Impact

• Recent 16-mark questions (2020, 2022, 2024) all focused narrowly on why Germans disliked the treaty.

• What has not been examined is the broader perspective required by the specification:

  • reactions of the Allies,

  • strengths and weaknesses of the settlement,

  • the challenges facing new states in Eastern Europe.

• Examiners are likely to return to Versailles but from a new angle.

Prediction 5: Early Steps in Hitler’s Foreign Policy (Dollfuss, Saar, Stresa Front, AGNA)

• The specification lists these as essential building blocks of growing tension.

• Exam coverage so far has focused on:

  • Rearmament (2023),

  • Rhineland (2020),

  • Anschluss (2024).

• Yet the Dollfuss Affair, the Saar plebiscite, the Stresa Front, and the Anglo-German Naval Agreement have not been directly examined.

Prediction 6: Escalation 1938–39: Sudeten Crisis, Occupation of Czechoslovakia, Invasion of Poland

These final steps towards war are specifically named in the specification. Yet so far they have barely been tested, aside from a 2020 4-mark source on Munich. The Sudeten Crisis and occupation of Czechoslovakia are central turning points that have not received full exam coverage.

Less Likely Topics

These could still appear, but we consider them as less probable because they have been heavily tested recently:

• Appeasement as the main reason for war — 16-mark in 2025.

• Manchurian Crisis — 8-mark account in 2025.

• Anschluss — 8-mark account in 2024.

• League usefulness — 12-mark in 2023 and 2024.

• “Why Germans hated Versailles” — 16-mark in 2020, 2022, 2024.

Guidance: Revise them because they underpin many broader arguments, but expect examiners to shift towards new angles rather than repeating these stems.

Our Predictions for Britain: Health and the People, c1000–present

Prediction 1: Communication as a Historical Factor

Across the 2020–2025 papers, the Q4 factor questions have cycled through almost all the named factors:

• Science & technology – 2020

• War – 2021

• Role of the individual – 2022 and 2024

• Chance – 2023

• Government – 2025

But communication has never been tested as the main factor, despite being explicitly named in the specification and central to medical change across all four periods.

Religion/superstition has appeared (Christianity – 2022 Q2), but communication is the only major spec factor not yet used in the 2020–25 sample.

Be prepared to:

• Use communication as the central factor.

• Compare it confidently with government, science & technology, and individuals, across all time periods.

Note: we also observe that science and technology last appeared in 2020. Given the cycle, this factor may also be ripe for a return.

Prediction 2: Germ Theory & the “Microbe Hunters” as a Turning Point

What has already been tested

• Pasteur as an 8-marker (2025).

• Koch in a comparison with Jenner (2023).

• Science & technology (2020 Q4).

What has not been tested (2020-2025)

• A direct question on Germ Theory itself.

• No “Explain the significance of Germ Theory.”

• No “Why was Germ Theory a turning point?”

This is a major omission because Germ Theory is the central pivot of Part Three: A Revolution in Medicine.

Know the turning-point narrative:

• Pasteur – swan-neck flask, Germ Theory, vaccination.

• Koch – identification of microbes, lab techniques, staining.

• Ehrlich – “magic bullets”, targeted chemical cures.

• How Germ Theory transformed treatment, prevention, and public health

Prediction 3: The Beginnings of Change: Vesalius, Harvey & (especially) John Hunter

Across six years, no specific Renaissance/early modern individuals have been used, even though the spec explicitly names:

• Vesalius (anatomy)

• Harvey (circulation)

• John Hunter (surgery, training, scientific method)

This is in spite the syllabus placing huge emphasis on these individuals as the foundation of modern science. “The Renaissance” has been tested (2024), but not the individual significance questions. Hunter is a particularly strong curveball: explicitly named in the spec, rarely asked.

Prediction 4: Pre-1914 Public Health Reformers: Booth, Rowntree, Boer War & Liberal Reforms

The crucial bridge period between Victorian laissez-faire and the NHS has not appeared from 2020-2025:

• Charles Booth

• Seebohm Rowntree

• The Boer War (national efficiency)

• Liberal reforms (free school meals, pensions, medical inspections)

These are all explicitly named in the spec but untested as main question focuses.

AQA has tested the endpoint (NHS, Welfare State) repeatedly. The natural next move is to test the causes of state intervention: poverty maps, national efficiency, early welfare reform

Prediction 5: Modern surgical breakthrough (20th century)

20th-century modern surgical breakthroughs, such as:

• Plastic surgery (Gillies)

• Blood transfusions & blood banks

• X-rays

• Transplants

• Keyhole & laser surgery

  
  

None of these have been central to a Q2, Q3 or Q4 from 2020-2025.

Prediction 6: War as a driver of medical change

War last appeared four years ago (2021) as the main factor.Given factor rotation patterns, war is now due again—likely linked to:

• Surgery,

• Public health, or

• Technological innovation.

Be prepared to argue for/against war as the primary driver across periods.

Prediction 7: Paul Ehrlich and “Magic Bullets”

The recent pattern:

• Pasteur – 2025

• Koch – 2023

• Fleming – 2025

Ehrlich is the missing link in the scientific chain.

Worthy mention

1. Islamic medicine and surgery. This has not appeared at all, despite being explicitly in the spec.

2. Revolution in Surgery (Simpson, Lister, Asepsis). 2025 Q3 covered earlier surgery (medieval vs 18th century). 2021 hit war + surgery. The scientific revolution in surgery (anaesthetic → antiseptic → aseptic) has not been the core of a major question for several years.

3. The Evolution of Hospitals. The last time "Hospitals" was a major comparison focus was 2020 (Medieval vs 18th Century). We are due for a comparison between Medieval Hospitals (Spirituality/Care) and 19th Century/Modern Hospitals (Nightingale/Cure).

Lower Priority

These topics are less likely to be the main focus because they’ve been used recently, but they remain essential examples:

• NHS and Welfare State

• Jenner & vaccination

• Pasteur and Koch

• Penicillin & modern treatment

• Christianity & medieval treatments

• Typical Q3 comparisons (plague vs cholera, hospitals 1250–present, Paré vs Lister, Jenner vs Koch, etc.)

Our Predictions for Elizabethan England, c1568–1603

Prediction 1: Puritanism

Puritanism is the single biggest gap in recent exam cycles. It last appeared in 2020 (Q2). Since then, the papers have tested Catholic plots (2024), the Religious Settlement (2025), and more general religious issues, yet the specific Puritan threat has been untouched for five years. Given that Puritanism is a core part of “Challenges to Elizabeth at home,” it is now a standout candidate.

Possible question

• Q3 Account: Write an account of the government’s response to Puritanism

Prediction 2: Mary, Queen of Scots

Although Mary, Queen of Scots featured in the 2023 Historic Environment study (Sheffield Manor Lodge), she has conspicuously not appeared in any standard Q1–Q3 questions in 2024 or 2025. This is unusual given her centrality to Part 3—“Troubles at home and abroad.” Her arrival in England, her role in Catholic plots, and her execution are all major specification points overdue for reassessment.

Mary is arguably one of the strongest bets across the entire paper.

Possible questions

• Q3 Account: Write an account of the events leading to the execution of Mary, Queen of Scots.

• Q2 Importance: Explain what was important about Mary’s arrival in England in 1568.

Prediction 3: Key Ministers & Patronage

While “Elizabeth and her Court” appeared in 2022, examiners have avoided drilling down into the individual ministers who made the system work—particularly William Cecil (Lord Burghley) and Francis Walsingham. The mechanism of patronage, faction, and decision-making is central to understanding how Elizabeth ruled, and it has not been strongly tested in recent cycles.

Possible question

• Q3 Account: Write an account of how the Patronage system worked.

Prediction 4: Marriage and Succession

The issue of Elizabeth’s marriage and succession was last touched upon in 2022 via “difficulties of a female ruler.” This theme is fundamental to Part 1 and remains underused in direct Q1–Q3 questions.

Prediction 5: Living Standards, Fashions, and the Rise of the Gentry (Golden Age)

This is the largest content gap in the “Life in Elizabethan times” section.

• Theatre has appeared repeatedly (2020, 2022, 2024).

• Stately homes have appeared indirectly through Kenilworth (2022) and Hardwick Hall (2025).

• But no direct 8-mark question has ever targeted:

  • living standards,

  • fashions,

  • prosperity and the rise of the gentry.

    
    

This makes it extremely likely as the next step in AQA’s rotation.

Possible question types:

• Q3 Account: Write an account of how living standards changed in Elizabethan England.

Prediction 6: Sir Walter Raleigh

“Voyages of Discovery” appeared in 2023, and “Drake’s Circumnavigation” formed the 2024 Historic Environment. Yet Raleigh himself—crucial to Elizabethan exploration and colonial attempts—has not been the main focus of a question for several years.

Expect a question on:

• the failure of the Roanoke colony (Virginia), or

• Raleigh’s role at court and in exploration.

Prediction 7: The Northern Rebellion, 1569

Although Catholic plots were examined in 2024 and the Religious Settlement in 2025, the Northern Rebellion itself has not featured as the centre of a Q3 for some time. Examiners may wish to distinguish this “early rebellion” from the later plot-based threats.

Possible question type:

• Q3 Account: Write an account of the Northern Rebellion of 1569.

Topics Less Likely to Appear (but still revise!)

These have received significant coverage in 2024–2025 and we believe that they are therefore less probable as headline questions:

• Poverty / the Poor: Q3 in 2023 and Q1 in 2025.

• The Spanish Armada: Q2 in 2025 and previously Q4 in 2020.

• The Theatre: Heavily tested (2020, 2022, 2024) and tends to appear in even years.

• Essex’s Rebellion / Earl of Essex: Appeared in 2020 and 2023.

• Parliament, marriage, succession, and the difficulties of a female ruler: Assessed in 2022 and 2024.

Our Predictions for Norman England, c1066–1100

Prediction 1: Norman government and the feudal system (How it All Fits Together)

• The feudal system has only appeared once as a main Q2 (2020: “Explain what was important about the feudal system under the Normans”) and has never been the core of a Q1 Interpretation.

• The spec wants:

  Feudalism and government: roles, rights, and responsibilities; landholding and lordship; land distribution; patronage; Anglo-Saxon and Norman government systems; aristocracies; justice, inheritance; Domesday Book, etc.

• Since 2020, questions have often picked out single elements (feudal system, legal system, towns, Domesday), but not yet a big, joined-up look at how Norman government actually worked and how it differed from Anglo-Saxon rule

How it could appear

Q2 Importance – e.g. “Explain what was important about the roles and responsibilities of Norman tenants-in-chief.” or “Explain what was important about the way William used land to reward his followers.”

Make sure to be able to explain how feudalism, landholding, patronage and government fit together – not just list the pyramid.

Prediction 2: Church reform, Lanfranc and Church–state relations

• We have had:

  • Q3 on how the English Church was affected by the Normans (2023),

  • Multiple questions on monasteries and monastic life (2020, 2024),

• But Lanfranc, Church organisation and courts, relations with the papacy, and Church–state tensions (especially under William II) have not been the main focus of Q2 or Q3.

• The spec emphasises: Archbishop Lanfranc and reform; Church courts; Church–state relations; William II and the Church; Investiture Controversy.

How it could appear:

• Q2 Importance – e.g.“Explain what was important about Archbishop Lanfranc’s reforms of the English Church.”

• Q3 Account – e.g. “Write an account of the ways in which relations between the king and the Church changed under the Normans.”

Prediction 3: Revolts and control beyond the Harrying of the North (rebellions in the Midlands/North, Hereward the Wake, and especially the Revolt of the Earls 1075)

The Harrying of the North has now had:

• Q3 account (2025)

• A strong presence via Q4 on Yorkshire (2023)

However, the wider revolt sequence 1067–75 – Exeter (already used as Q2 in 2025), the rebellions in the Midlands/North, Hereward the Wake, and especially the Revolt of the Earls (1075) – is only partially tested.

The spec explicitly highlights:

Revolts, 1067–1075; William’s leadership and government; the use of castles and other methods to establish and maintain control.

Prediction for Britain: Power and the People, c1170–present

Prediction 1: War or Religion ( as an essay factor)

• The 16-mark essay rotates the "named factor."

  • 2025: Parliament

  • 2024: Government

  • 2023: Role of Individual

  • 2022: Ideas

  • 2020: Economy

• War and Religion are the only major factors left.

We suggest you focus your attention on the following key points: How wars (Civil War, American Revolution, WWI/WWII) forced the government to give people more rights, OR how religion caused conflict (Pilgrimage of Grace, Gunpowder Plot, Civil War).

Prediction 2: Simon de Montfort

Looking at the past papers, we can observed that he last appeared in 2021. Since Magna Carta came up in 2024 and Peasants' Revolt in 2025, Simon de Montfort is the only major Medieval topic left that hasn't been tested recently.

We suggest you focus your attention on the following key points: the Provisions of Oxford, the 1265 Parliament, and his impact on the King's authority.

Prediction 3: the General Strike, Workers' Rights and Trade Unions

The 20th-century workers' rights section (General Strike 1926, Trade Unions in the 1970s/80s) is completely missing from the recent papers. 2025 and 2024 focused heavily on 19th-century factory reform. The exam board needs to test the modern era.

We suggest you focus your attention on the following key points: Causes of the 1926 General Strike, why it failed, government response, and the connection to later union reforms (Thatcher era).

Prediction 4: American Revolution

This is a topic that you must memorise and know inside out. It has not appeared as a major standalone question (Source or Significance) in the last 5 years of data you provided (only as a comparison in 2021). It is massively overdue.

We suggest you focus your attention on the following key points: "No taxation without representation," the Boston Tea Party, the war itself, and the significance(loss of colonies, impact on British democracy/empire).

Prediction 5: communication

• It is explicitly in the spec as a named factor.

• It has never been the main factor in any Q4 (2020–25), unlike government, economy, ideas, individuals.

• It runs right across the course:

  • Medieval charters and proclamations (Magna Carta, Provisions of Oxford).

  • Print and pamphlets – e.g. radical ideas in the Civil War era, American revolutionary propaganda.

  • Newspapers & mass circulation – Chartists, Anti-Slavery, Anti-Corn Law League, trade unions.

  • Radio/TV & modern media – women’s suffrage, General Strike, Brixton/multi-racial Britain, modern campaigns.

Likely question (something like):

“Has communication been the main factor in changing people’s rights or their relationship with the state in Britain?”

I’d treat communication as the number 1 factor to prepare for Q4.

Prediction 6: The campaign for women’s suffrage

• Votes for women had a Q1 source (2020), and suffrage was linked in Q3 (2024), but no Q2 “significance of the campaign” yet.

• It’s a big spec bullet:

  • Change in the franchise.

  • Methods of suffragists vs suffragettes.

  • War, government response, long-term equality.

They might phrase it as:

• “Explain the significance of the campaign for women’s suffrage,” or

• “Explain the significance of the extension of the franchise to women.”

Worthy mentions

1. The Anti-Corn Law League

   We have seen Anti-Slavery (2023) and Factory Reform (2024/25). The Anti-Corn Law League is the missing piece of the "Pressure Groups" puzzle from 2020-2025.

2. Minority Rights & The Brixton Riots (Part 4)

   It has been a few years. Since AQA likes to rotate Part 4 topics (Women vs Workers vs Minorities), and Women appeared in 2024 (Sim) and 2020 (Source), Minority Rights is due to cycle back in.

Less Likely topics

These topics appeared prominently in 2024 and 2025. While you shouldn't ignore them, they are lower priority for "Significance" or "Essay" questions.

• The Pilgrimage of Grace: Appeared in 2025 (Source) and 2023 (Similarities). It has been heavily tested recently.

• Factory Acts & Social Reformers: Appeared in 2025 (Significance) and 2024 (Source). This topic is "burned out" for now.

• Magna Carta: A major question in 2024 (Significance) and 2022. Unlikely to be a main focus again so soon.

• Peasants' Revolt: Appeared in 2025 (Similarities).

• The Growth of Parliament (General): This was the 2025 Essay question.

Our Predictions for Britain: Migration, empires and the people: c790-present

Prediction 1: Science and Technology

In the past 8 years (2018–2025), the 16-mark "Factor" questions have covered Religion (2024), Ideas/Imperialism (2023), Economics (2022, 2019), Government (2021), Individuals (2020), and War (2018). Science and Technology is the only major factor from the syllabus list that has not been the main focus of a Question 4 recently. It really is the "forgotten" factor.

Focus on the following:

• Navigation: How better ships/navigation (longitude, sextant) allowed for the exploration of America and India.

• Military Tech: The maxim gun (Scramble for Africa) or superior weaponry helping in the conquest of indigenous peoples.

• Transport/Infrastructure: Railways in India, steamships (shrinking the world), and the telegraph (communicating with the Empire).

Prediction 2: King Cnut, Emma of Normandy & The North Sea Empire

We already have had Alfred the Great (2021 Significance) and Viking Invasions (2023 Significance). The logical next step in the "Conquered and Conquerors" section is the North Sea Empire. Cnut and Emma are named specifically in the syllabus but have not had a dedicated "Significance" question in the years provided.

We would recommend that you focus on the following content: Cnut’s role in uniting England, Denmark, and Norway; Emma’s role as the wife of two kings (Aethelred and Cnut) and mother of two kings (Harthacnut and Edward the Confessor).

Prediction 3: Sugar and the Caribbean / the Atlantic slave trade

• It’s a big bullet point in Part Two (“Sugar and the Caribbean”) but has never been the main focus of any 2020–2025 question.

• Hawkins appears once (2022 Q3, Hawkins vs Rhodes), but the wider slave trade & sugar economy (plantations, triangular trade, impact on British ports/industries) hasn’t been hit as a Q1/Q2/Q4 focus. Feels “due” for either Q2 significance or a Q1 source.

Prediction 4: Legacy of Empire & post-war migration (Windrush, Claudia Jones, Ugandan Asians, Commonwealth)

• The “Legacy of Empire” bullet in Part Four is very prominent in the spec (Windrush, Caribbean migration, migration from Asia and Africa, Amin in Uganda, the Commonwealth, the Falklands War, Claudia Jones), but has not yet been the main focus of any 2020–25 Q2 or Q3.

• Recent Q1 source questions have touched on race relations (2025) and the British Empire in general (2024), but they have avoided zooming in on:

  • The arrival of Empire Windrush and Caribbean migration

  • The expulsion of Ugandan Asians under Idi Amin

  • The Commonwealth as a post-imperial structure

  • The Falklands War as a late, symbolic moment of imperial identity

• Given the examiners’ clear interest in modern attitudes to race, identity and empire, and the fact that these examples have now been “saved” for several years, it makes this cluster one of the strongest candidates for a focused question.

Prediction 5: End of Empire & independence (India, Africa, Suez, nationalists)

• This is explicitly in Part Four: “The end of Empire” – impact of WWI/WWII, Suez, Gandhi, Nkrumah, Kenyatta.

• 2020–2025 questions touch India, Africa and empire, but not the decolonisation process itself as a main focus (no Q1 on Suez/independence, no Q2 significance of independence/nationalism). Very plausible as a Q1 source (e.g. cartoon/photo on independence or Suez) or as evidence in a Q4 on why Britain lost empire.

Prediction 6: Expansion in Africa (Scramble for Africa, Cecil Rhodes, Boer War)

The African dimension of Empire has been remarkably underused in recent papers. Apart from a single source question in 2020, AQA has not directly examined:

• the Scramble for Africa,

• missionary activity and trade,

• Cecil Rhodes, or

• the Boer War (1899–1902).

Given its centrality in the specification, and the long gap since it was last tested, it is now one of the most overdue parts of the course for a significance (Q2) or comparison (Q3) question. It also aligns neatly with potential factor essays on war, ideas, or economic motives, making it an adaptable choice for AQA.

Prediction 7: 20th-Century Migration: Windrush, Caribbean migrants, Claudia Jones, Ugandan Asians

Although the 2025 Source question covered 1950s race relations, the broader thematic content on post-war migration — including Windrush, Caribbean settlement, and migration from Asia and Africa — has not been tested in Q2–Q4 for several years.

This is a major gap in recent assessment. The significance of the Windrush generation, the changing nature of migration after 1945, and the role of individuals like Claudia Jones are all highly examinable. With AQA increasingly showing interest in modern themes, this area is a strong prospect for both Q2 (significance) and Q4 (factor essays).

Less Likely

The less likely topics are mainly those which have been heavily used between 2020–2025 or which examiners tend to treat as supporting background rather than headline material.

• These include most of Part One: Viking invasions (2023), Alfred the Great (2021), the Angevin Empire (2022), and the Hundred Years’ War (2024), all of which have appeared recently in Q2 or Q3 and are therefore unlikely to be repeated immediately.

• Similarly, medieval migration motives and impacts, used twice in 2025 (Q2 and Q3), are now low-probability for another major question.

• Topics from Part Three that have been directly tested—such as expansion in India (featured repeatedly in Q1 2020–2021 and Q3 2024) and British involvement in Africa during the Scramble (Q1 2020, plus Rhodes in 2022 Q3)—are also less likely to reappear as main questions, though they may still serve as comparison material.

• Finally, areas like transportation of convicts, the Highland Clearances, and Ulster plantations tend to appear as minor examples rather than core exam topics, so they remain possible but not strong candidates for a headline Q2 or Q4.

Our Predictions for America, 1920–1973: Opportunity and Inequality

Prediction 1: The New Deal (Opposition OR Evaluation of Success)

• Interpretations in 2025 were on the New Deal → makes NEW interpretation questions very unlikely for 2026.

• BUT content questions (Q4–6) have NOT hit:

  • opposition to the New Deal,

  • Supreme Court,

  • Republicans,

  • Huey Long / radical critics.

• These have not appeared since before 2020, making them “due.”

Possible questions:

• Describe two reasons why some Americans opposed the New Deal.

• In what ways did the New Deal help different groups in society?

• Which had more impact: the New Deal or WWII? (This appeared in 2024, so less likely.)

Prediction 2: The Wall Street Crash / The Depression (CAUSES + IMPACT)

• The Depression has appeared repeatedly for effects (2023 Q5, 2022 Q4), but the causes of the Crash have never been a main question in recent years.

• The syllabus includes key untested areas such as overproduction, hire purchase, speculation, laissez-faire Republican policies, and weak banking system.

• Prohibition dominated 2025, entertainment in 2024, so a return to 1929–1933 era is highly probable.

Prediction 3: Civil Rights Movement (King vs Malcolm X / success vs limits)

• Civil Rights interpretations were last in 2023 → possible but less likely for Q1–3.

• However, the 8-mark and 12-mark questions have NOT focused on Civil Rights since 2021.

• 2025 asked a comparison of African American vs Women after WWII (NOT Civil Rights campaigns).

  
  

Key syllabus gaps:

• Black Power movement,

• Malcolm X,

• the limits of peaceful protest,

• Civil Rights Acts (1964, 1968).

Prediction 4: McCarthyism (Q4 short or Q5 8-mark)

• McCarthyism was last tested in 2023 Q4 (short only).

• It has never been the focus of Q5 or Q6 since 2020.

• It sits in a key Post-War section often skipped in cycles.

  
  

Possible questions:

• Describe two problems caused by McCarthyism. (repeat possible, but unlikely)

• In what ways did McCarthyism affect American society? (NOT used since 2020s papers)

Prediction 5: Women (1920s flappers OR 1960s feminist movement)

• Feminism came up in 2021 (Q4 & Q5) and 2024 (interpretations) and indirectly in 2025 Q6.

• But the position of women in the 1920s (flappers, social change vs limits) has NOT been tested since pre-2020.

• Syllabus requires BOTH early 1920s women + 1960s feminism; only the second has been tested heavily.

Least Likely Topics

The least likely topics for 2026 are those tested very recently: Prohibition (heavily tested in 2025 Q4–5), Feminism (interpretations in 2024 and Q6 in 2025), Immigration as a main theme (interpretations 2021 and short questions in 2020 & 2024), New Deal interpretations (2025), popular culture (2022 interpretations), and Civil Rights interpretations (2023). While small short questions on these could still appear, they are very unlikely to be the core of Q1–3 or the 8- or 12-mark questions.

Our Conflict & Tension: East–West, 1945–1972 Predictions

Prediction 1: The Berlin Blockade & Airlift (1948–49)

• It has not appeared in any 8- or 16-mark question since 2022, and even then it was only the focus of the 12-mark usefulness question.

• It is one of the core turning points in Part One and AQA historically tests it at least every 3–4 years.

• The 2024 and 2025 papers heavily focused on division of Germany, but NOT on the Blockade itself, which is a distinct event.

Possible Questions

• 8 marker: “Write an account of how the Berlin Blockade increased Cold War tension.”

• 16 marker: “The Berlin Blockade was the main reason for increasing Cold War tension in the years 1945–49.” How far do you agree?

Prediction 2: The Arms Race & Military Rivalries (NATO, Warsaw Pact, missiles, space)

• The arms race has never been the main 16-marker across 2020–25.

• Q4 questions on “main cause of tension” have recently used:

  • Cuba (2025)

  • Korea (2024)

  • Czechoslovakia (2023)

  • U2 Crisis (2022)

• The arms race is the largest untested main factor left, and fits AQA’s habit of rotating ideology → events → military → events → military.

Prediction 3: The Truman Doctrine & Marshall Plan

• Last appearance: 2021 (8 marker account on Truman Doctrine).

• AQA typically revisits the origins every 4–5 years as part of the “causes” cycle.

• 2024 and 2025 both focused on division of Germany, not US policy.

Possible questions

• 8 marker:“Write an account of how the Truman Doctrine and Marshall Plan increased tension between East and West.”

• 16 marker:“US policies were the main reason for the development of the Cold War before 1949.” How far do you agree?

This fills the gap left by 2024/25’s focus on Germany.

Prediction 4: The Hungarian Uprising

• Last examined in 2022 (8 marker).

• Has not appeared in a 16-marker in any paper 2020–25.

• AQA frequently rotates 1956 ↔ 1968 (Prague), and Prague has been used twice recently (2023 account, 2023 16-marker), making Hungary the next logical return.

Possible questions

• 8 marker:“Write an account of how events in Hungary affected superpower relations.”

• 16 marker:“The Hungarian Uprising was the main reason for increased tension during the 1950s.” How far do you agree?

Prediction 5: the Berlin Wall

The Berlin Wall (1961)

• Do not confuse this with the Division of Germany (which came up in 2025). The Division of Germany refers to 1945–1949 (Part 1). The Berlin Wall refers to the crisis in 1961 (Part 3).

• The Berlin Wall hasn't been a major focus since 2021. With "Germany 1945" appearing in 2025, the logical progression for the examiner is to move the timeline forward to 1961 for the next exam.

  
  

• Possible Question: Q4 Essay ("The main reason for tension in the 1960s was the Berlin Wall") or Q3 Account(How the Berlin Wall stabilized relations).

  
  

Less Likely

These topics have been heavily tested in the last two years. While you should still know them, they are unlikely to be the main focus of the 16-mark essay or the 8-mark account.

• The Division of Germany (1945–1949): This was the heavy focus of the 2025 exam (Q1 and Q3).

• The Cuban Missile Crisis: This was the main essay (Q4) in 2025.

• The Prague Spring (Czechoslovakia 1968): This appeared in 2024 (Q3) and 2023 (Q4). It is heavily "fatigued."

• The Korean War: This was the main essay (Q4) in 2024.

Our Predictions for Conflict and tension: The First World War, 1894–1918

Prediction 1: Moroccan Crises & Entente relations (Part 1 – Alliance System)

• Spec bits under-used:

  • Morocco 1905 and 1911

  • Relations between the Entente powers (Britain–France–Russia)

• Balkans 1908–09 and the Franco–Russian Alliance have now been tested, but Morocco hasn’t been directly hit at all in 2020–25.

• Very strong candidate for either a 12-mark usefulness (sources on a Morocco crisis) or an 8-mark account on how the Morocco crises increased tension. High-likelihood area somewhere on the paper.

Prediction 2: Slav nationalism, Serbia–Austria-Hungary & the July Crisis (Part 1 – outbreak)

• Assassination has had an 8-marker (2021) and a 16-marker (2023), but:

  • “Slav nationalism”,

  • Serbia vs Austria-Hungary, and

  • the detailed July Crisis escalationhave not been the direct focus.

• That gives AQA room to assess the outbreak of war again without repeating the assassination question.

We believe there could very likely be an 8-marker account (“Write an account of how the July Crisis led to the outbreak of the First World War”) or a 16-marker as a factor.

Prediction 3: Verdun, the Somme, Passchendaele

• Western Front in general, trench warfare and stalemate have been assessed.

• But the named battles in the spec – Verdun, Somme, Passchendaele – have never been the headline of a question2020–25.

• This is a clean gap and lets the board re-use Western Front content in a fresh way.

• Strong candidate for:

  • a 12-mark usefulness (“How useful are Sources B and C to an historian studying the Battle of the Somme?”), or

  • an 8-mark account of how one of the battles affected the course of the war / contributed to attrition.

Prediction 4: The British naval blockade & collapse of Germany (Part 3 – Germany surrenders)

• End of the war has been tested a lot, but always with a different main factor:

  • 2020 – USA’s arrival

  • 2021 – failure of Spring Offensive

  • 2022 – general “end of WWI”

• The blockade is named in the spec as a major factor but has never been the star of the show.

• Likewise, economic hardship, hunger, morale collapse on the German home front have only appeared indirectly.

  
  

Prediction 5: Haig and Foch’s contribution to victory (Part 3 – Germany surrenders)

• Leadership of generals has appeared once – 2022 16-marker – but that was about stalemate up to 1917, not about victory in 1918.

• The spec explicitly mentions Haig and Foch’s contribution to victory, which hasn’t been isolated as the main focus yet. We believe it may be likely to appear as one of the “other factors” in a 16-marker on Germany’s defeat (blockade vs generals vs US entry etc.), or a targeted 8-marker account of how Haig/Foch helped defeat Germany.

Noteworthy mentions

Secondary Prediction: The Anglo-German Naval Race.

• This appeared in 2021 (Q2) but hasn't been a major focus since. It pairs well with a Q3 "Write an account"

Trench Warfare (Life in the trenches).

• It has been a while (2020) since the "nature of trench warfare" was the primary focus.

Less Likely

Because of both recency and frequency, I’d weight these as less likely to be the central focus of a 2026 question:

• Kaiser Wilhelm / Weltpolitik / Anglo-German rivalry

  • Big 16m in 2025; plus source on Kaiser (2022) and usefulness on rivalry (2021).

• Assassination of Franz Ferdinand / July Crisis

  • 8m account (2021) and 16m (2023) already.

• War at sea (as a whole topic)

  • 12m usefulness in 2023 and 8m account in 2024.

• Gallipoli

  • 12m usefulness in 2025, so very recent.

• US entry and Russia’s withdrawal

  • US entry: 16m (2020) + 8m (2023).

  • Russia’s withdrawal: 8m (2025).

  • The “Changes in the Allied Forces” bullet has now been treated pretty thoroughly.

• Schlieffen Plan as a main focus

  • Just had a big 16m in 2024 on its failure keeping the Western Front going.

Our Predictions for Conflict and tension tension in Asia, 1950–1975

Prediction 1: Causes of the Korean War (division of Korea, nationalism, Kim Il Sung, US/USSR/China)

• Spec bullet: “The causes of the Korean War: nationalism in Korea; US relations with China; the division of Korea; Kim Il Sung and Syngman Rhee; reasons why the North invaded the South; US and UN responses; USSR’s absence from the UN.”

• Only major use so far:

  • 2024 Q3 – account on how invasion of South Korea led to international conflict.

  • Various usefulness/source questions mention Korea, but no 16m specifically on causes.

• They’ve done a 16m on American actions and development of Korean War (2021), but that’s about development, not origins.

Likely 16m-style stem:

“The division of Korea in 1945 was the main reason why war broke out in Korea in 1950.”How far do you agree?

Prediction 2: Impact of the Korean War on Korea, the UN and Sino-American relations

• Spec bullet at the end of Korea:“impact of the Korean War for Korea, the UN and Sino-American relations.”

• 2025 Q3 tested stalemate (how the war ended in stalemate), but not the wider consequences for the UN and relations between USA & China.

• The examiners have repeatedly used impact-type 16 markers (e.g., Kent State on opinion, Tet on success/failure). Impact of the Korean War is a big, untouched bullet.

Likely 16m-style stem:

“The main impact of the Korean War was on relations between the USA and China.”How far do you agree?

Prediction 3: Dien Bien Phu and the end of French rule

• Spec bullet: “The end of French colonial rule: Dien Bien Phu and its consequences; Geneva Agreement, 1954; civil war in South Vietnam; opposition to Diem; the Vietcong – aims, support, leadership and guerrilla tactics and Ho Chi Minh.”

• So far only:

  • 2023 Q3 – “how the Geneva Agreement, 1954 led to further conflict in Vietnam.”

• Dien Bien Phu itself hasn’t had its own spotlight, and neither has a 16m on “end of French rule” as the main cause of later conflict / US involvement.

Given Geneva got an 8-marker in 2023, they might not hit Geneva again immediately, but a different angle (“end of French colonial rule”, “Dien Bien Phu”) is still unused for 16 marks.

Prediction 4" US tactics in Vietnam: Search and Destroy, bombing & chemical warfare (incl. My Lai)

• The spec explicitly lists:

  • Search and Destroy tactics and impact

  • The mass bombing campaign

  • My Lai and its public impact

  • Chemical warfare (Agent Orange / napalm) under Johnson/Nixon.

• My Lai has not been the focus of any question yet – only mentioned indirectly at best.

• 16 markers on failure in Vietnam have so far named:

  • Domino Theory (2020), Gulf of Tonkin (2022), Kent State (2023), Vietcong tactics (2024), Tet Offensive (2025).👉 All about US motives, escalation events, VC tactics, Tet – not yet “US tactics alienating the population / undermining victory”.

Likely 16m-style stem:

“American military tactics, such as Search and Destroy and the use of chemical weapons, were the main reason why the USA failed to win the Vietnam War.”How far do you agree?

Worthy mention

Don't Ignore Diem: The period between 1954 (Geneva) and 1963 (Diem's assassination) has been quiet on recent papers. A question on why the South Vietnamese hated Diem is a strong candidate for Q2 or Q3.

Topics that look less likely in the short term (

These are not impossible, but if you’re triaging your revision:

• Tet Offensive – 12m usefulness focus in 2023 and the 16m in 2025.

• Kent State University – 4m source (2022) and 16m judgement (2023).

• Gulf of Tonkin – 16m main reason for escalation in 2022.

• Domino Theory – 16m 2020 and strongly present again in 2025 Q2 “spread of communism in Asia”.

• “Opposition in America” as a broad process – 8m in 2020 & 2021, 16m Kent State 2023.

• Geneva Agreement, 1954 – 8m in 2023.

• Korean War development (UN, Inchon, Chinese intervention) – 12m 2020; 12m 2022 (Korean War); 2024 & 2025 accounts also brush this heavily.

• Nixon & Vietnam in general – 4m 2020, 12m 2024, 4m 2025.

Predictions for Medieval England — The Reign of Edward I, 1272–1307

Prediction 1: The Expulsion of the Jews (1290)

• This is a specific, named event in "Part Two: Life in Medieval England." Looking at your data, it has not appeared as a specific Q2 or Q3 focus between 2020 and 2025. The syllabus emphasizes "economic" and "religious" standpoints, and this event covers both perfectly.

• Possible Question: Write an account of the expulsion of the Jews in 1290

Prediction 2: The Legal System (Statutes of Gloucester & Winchester)

• The "Legal System" last appeared as a "Write an account" question in 2020. Since then, we've had a lot of focus on Government/Parliament (2022, 2023, 2025). The examiners are overdue to cycle back to Law and Order, specifically the specific statutes (Gloucester/Winchester) and the 'Quo Warranto' inquiries.

• Possible Question: Explain what was important about the legal reforms (or Statutes) passed by Edward I.

Prediction 3: The "Great Cause" (Scottish Succession)

• While Scotland has appeared (Wallace in 2023, Relations in 2022), the specific political drama of the Great Cause (the legal dispute between Balliol and Bruce) has not been the primary focus recently. With the Welsh Wars covering 2023 and 2025, the pendulum should swing back to the start of the Scottish conflict.

• Likely Question: Write an account of the Great Cause.

Prediction 4: Robert Burnell

• He was a Q2 (Importance) topic in 2020. He is the most significant individual in the syllabus besides Edward himself. After a 5-year gap, he is a prime candidate for a return, particularly regarding his role in government or the Church.

Worthy Mentions

Education and Learning (Universities/Roger Bacon): This is a "niche" part of the syllabus. It rarely comes up, but because it hasn't appeared in the 2020–2025 list, it is a "Dark Horse" candidate. If examiners want to be difficult, they will pick this.

Economy & Trade: The wool trade, Italian bankers, and coinage are core parts of the syllabus that rarely get a full 8-mark question.

Low Probability

These topics have appeared very recently (2024–2025). You should still know them, but they are unlikely to be the mainfocus of the specific questions again.

• Parliament: Appeared in 2025 (Interpretation). Very unlikely to be the Q1 focus again.

• General Welsh Wars: Appeared in 2025 (Account) and 2023 (Importance). The "Conquest of Wales" is saturated.

• Problems on Accession: Appeared in 2025 (Importance).

• The Church: Appeared in 2024 (Importance).