Edexcel GCSE History 2026 Predictions
- Edward Langford
- 6 days ago
- 25 min read
This year’s Edexcel GCSE History predictions are based on what we’ve seen as teachers and examiners: the recency of topics, how often they tend to cycle back, and the patterns across the past six exam series (2020-2025). Of course, you must revise the whole specification — nothing here is guaranteed — but these predictions can help you focus more effectively and avoid overlooking topics that may be more likely to appear. Use them as guidance, not a shortcut.
Topics (click to jump):
Predictions for Crime and punishment in Britain, c1000–present and Whitechapel, c1870–c1900: crime, policing and the inner city
Predictions for Medicine in Britain, c1250–present and The British sector of the Western Front, 1914–18: injuries, treatment and the trenches
Predictions for Warfare and British society, c1250–present and London and the Second World War, 1939–45
Predictions for Superpower relations and the Cold War, 1941–91
Predictions for the USA, 1954–75: conflict at home and abroad.
Our Crime & Punishment Predictions
Looking across 2020–2025, certain aspects have now been fully covered, while others remain notably under-tested. The comments below outline what we believe are the most likely areas to be tested for 2026, based on recency, frequency, and gaps in past assessment.
The Historic Environment Section: Whitechapel
Prediction 1: Migration and Tensions (Irish and Jewish Communities)
The specification explicitly highlights “settlement of migrants from Ireland and Eastern Europe” and “attacks on Jewish people”. While elements of social tension appeared indirectly in the 2023 enquiry on socialism, these migration-related issues have not been the direct focus of either a features question or an enquiry since the new specification began.
For that reason, a question centred on immigration and community relations is overdue. Examiners may frame this through:
Q1 Describe features of migration in Whitechapel / the Jewish community / tensions and attacks
Q2 enquiry into the impact of migration, antisemitic attacks, or public attitudes towards immigrants
This would allow examiners to test a specification bullet that has not yet been foregrounded while still remaining accessible to candidates.
Prediction 2: The Vigilance Committee
The Vigilance Committee is named directly in the specification yet has never been the central focus of a question. By contrast, police shortcomings, Ripper difficulties, and general conditions have all been used repeatedly (2020, 2021, 2023, 2025).This makes the Vigilance Committee a highly plausible alternative angle for 2026, offering variety without leaving the well-trodden policing theme.
Potential question stems include:
“Describe two features of the Whitechapel Vigilance Committee.”
“How useful is Source A/B for an enquiry into the work of the Whitechapel Vigilance Committee?”
Prediction 3: Investigative Techniques in 1888
Recent questions have focused on broad challenges (e.g., conditions, lodging houses, prostitution, policing difficulties). However, the exam has not directly tested the specific investigative methods used during the Ripper murders.
Not yet addressed in 2020–2025:
the use and limits of sketches and early photography
the beat constable system (only a Q1 in 2022; not yet an enquiry)
the lack of modern forensic techniques (no fingerprints, no profiling, no DNA)
conflicting jurisdictions (Metropolitan vs City Police vs Scotland Yard)
why these limitations hindered the investigation
These omissions make investigative methods a highly likely focus.
Possible question formats:
“How useful are Sources A and B for an enquiry into the investigative techniques used during the Ripper case?”
“…into the difficulties caused by the investigative methods available in 1888.”
The specification identifies:“alcohol, prostitution, protection rackets, gangs, violent demonstrations and attacks on Jewish people.”
Although policing difficulties and Ripper failure have been assessed extensively, the criminal underworld itself—particularly gangs and racketeering—has not yet been the direct focus of a question.
Examiner-friendly possibilities include:
Q1 features: pubs, gangs, protection rackets, or prostitution
Q2 enquiry: how anti-social behaviour and gang activity increased the difficulties of policing in Whitechapel
Areas Less Likely for 2026 (Recently Tested Repeatedly)
These topics have appeared multiple times across 2020–2025 and are therefore less likely to be the central focus:
Peabody Estate / lodging houses / accommodation for the poor
General “difficulties of policing”
Failure to catch Jack the Ripper
These themes have been well covered and are unlikely to be prioritised again immediately.
The Thematic Study (Core Crime and Punishment)
Prediction 1: Tolpuddle Martyrs & Crimes Against Authority (c1700–c1900)
The specification highlights “the treatment of the Tolpuddle Martyrs” as a key example of changing definitions of crime. Despite this, Tolpuddle has never been the main focus of a question in the 2020–2025 window. Furthermore, a return to crimes against authority in the 18th–19th centuries feels overdue. The only similar question was in 2021, which dealt with religion and crimes against authority in an earlier period.
Possible question:
16-mark: “Crimes against authority were dealt with harshly in the years c1700–c1900. How far do you agree?”
Prediction 2: Conscientious Objectors (Treatment in WWI & WWII)
The modern case study in the specification is “Treatment of Conscientious Objectors in the First and Second World Wars.” Across 2020–2025, this has never appeared as the central topic in any of the questions. By contrast, the other modern case studies (death penalty in 2020 and 2025, prisons 2021, 2022 and 2025) have appeared repeatedly. This makes conscientious objectors the most likely modern case study to be due a question.
Possible question
12-mark: “Explain why attitudes to punishment changed in the years c1900–present. (where COs could be used to show changing attitudes)
Prediction 3: Matthew Hopkins
Witchcraft only appeared as a minor 4-mark comparison in 2024. A full 12- or 16-mark question on Hopkins has not been asked recently. The specification names “Matthew Hopkins” explicitly and requires students to understand:
reasons for the intensity of the hunts
influence of the Civil War
methods and punishments
local tensions, religion, gender, and authority
Possible question:
16-mark:“Matthew Hopkins was the main reason for the intensity of the witch-hunts in 1645–47. How far do you agree?”
Given that the exam has focused heavily on medieval Church influence (2020, 2024, 2025), the early-modern section is due rotation.
Prediction 3: Driving, Race, and Drug Crimes (New Crimes in Modern Britain)
The specification requires understanding of “changing definitions of crime, including driving offences, race crimes, and drug crimes.”Examiners often rotate through these.
Recent questions:
2021 → new forms of theft (credit cards/shoplifting)
smuggling and theft have appeared multiple times
But race crimes, drug crimes, and driving offences have not been named at all!
Possible question
12-mark: “Explain why the nature of crime changed in the years c1900–present.”
Prediction 4: Science & Technology Focus for Policing c1900–present
Though policing has been frequent, the specification bullet: “use of science and technology, increasing specialisation, and prevention” has not been tested yet. Recent questions have already used specialisation (2020), broad “work of the police has changed” (2025) and Peel in 2023
But science and technology alone (CCTV, DNA, computers) have not been the specific focus.
Possible 16-marker:
“The use of science and technology has been the most significant development in policing since c1900. How far do you agree?”
This would allow fresh content while staying within familiar territory.
Predictions 5: Highway Robbery & Smuggling (1700-1900)
Highway robbery has not been a main focus at all in 2020–25. Smuggling had one major question (2021), but it still fits well for a reasons-based question.
Possible 12-marker:
“Explain why there were changes in crimes against property in the years c1700–c1900.”→ students discuss highway robbery, smuggling, increased travel, economic developments, government action.
Crime & Punishment Past 6 Years of Questions (2020–2025)
Topics Least Likely to Appear in 2026
(Based on recency, frequency, and rotation patterns)
Death Penalty & Derek BentleyAlready examined in 2020 and again in 2025. Examiners avoid repeating such a major modern case study so soon.
Prison System (Pentonville, Separate System, Howard, Fry)Assessed in 2022, 2023, and heavily in 2025 with a 16-marker. Prisons are highly unlikely to return immediately.
Medieval Church Influence (Trial by Ordeal, Benefit of Clergy, Sanctuary)Directly tested in 2025 Question 5. Medieval Church essays are never repeated in consecutive years.
Policing Developments 1829–Present (CID, Specialisation, Radios, Patrols)Major essay focus in 2020, 2023, and 2024. This topic has been extensively covered and is due a rest.
Whitechapel Housing & Living Conditions (Peabody Estate, Lodging Houses, Workhouses)Appeared multiple times from 2020–2025, including both Q1 and Q2 in 2025. This area is oversaturated.
Witchcraft (1500–1700 and 1700–1900)Examined directly in 2024 Q3. Immediate repetition is unlikely given the usual Edexcel rotation.
Young Offenders & Juvenile Treatment (Borstals, Juvenile Courts)Tested in 2023 Q3. Typically does not reappear until the topic cycle returns.
Early Modern Crime Increases (Vagabondage, Treason)Formed the 12-mark question in 2025. Edexcel almost never repeats the previous year’s 12-mark theme.
Our Medicine in Britain Predictions
The Historic Environment Section: The British Sector of the Western Front
Prediction 1: Gas Attacks
Gas attacks (chlorine, phosgene, mustard gas) are a core syllabus point, yet they have not been a major focus since 2020. Given their centrality to medical problems on the Western Front, and their absence from recent papers, they are now statistically “due”.
Possible Exam Questions:
Describe two features of gas attacks.
How useful are Sources A and B for investigating the effects of gas attacks on soldiers?
Prediction 2: The Trench System & Terrain
Although “fighting in trenches” appeared in 2025, the detailed structure of trenches has not been directly assessed for several years. Features such as fire bays, traverses, duckboards, and parados are highly examinable.Additionally, terrain-based hazards—mud, shell craters, polluted soil, gas gangrene—have not recently been the main focus of a 4-mark or source question.
Possible Exam Question:
Describe two features of the trench system on the Western Front.
Prediction 3: The Evacuation Route (Specific Stages: RAMC, Stretcher Bearers, Base Hospitals)
Why it’s likely:Recent papers have sampled aspects of evacuation—transport (2023), Casualty Clearing Stations (2024), “difficulties caring for the wounded”—but never a direct enquiry into the RAMC as an organisation, nor a focused question on stretcher bearers, horse ambulances, motor ambulances, or Base Hospitals. This is one of the most examinable “gaps” remaining.
Possible Exam Questions:
Describe two features of the work of the RAMC on the Western Front.
How useful are Sources A and B for an enquiry into the work of medical staff in the chain of evacuation?
Likely Focus:A targeted enquiry into RAMC duties, stretcher bearers, or conditions in Base Hospitals.
Prediction 4: X-Rays
Mobile X-ray units appear directly in the specification under “significance of the Western Front for experiments in surgery and medicine”, yet have not been examined at all between 2020–2025. This makes X-rays one of the strongest untested syllabus points.
Possible Question Types:
Q1: Describe two features of the use of X-rays on the Western Front.
Q2b: A follow-up enquiry related to evidence and further research on X-ray use.
Section 2: Medicine (Early, Later and Modern)
Prediction 1: The Black Death (1348–49)
2025 focused on the Four Humours; 2024 on Renaissance progress. The Black Death, despite being a major medieval case study, has not been the subject of a 12- or 16-mark question for several years.It is overdue, especially as a question on approaches to prevention or treatment.
Likely Exam Question:
Explain why there were different approaches to preventing or treating the Black Death in 1348–49.
Prediction 2: Vesalius
Sydenham appeared in 2023, Harvey in 2024. Vesalius is now the missing major Renaissance figure. Examiners often rotate the three Renaissance giants, making Vesalius extremely probable for the next 16-marker.
Likely Exam Question:
How significant was Vesalius’ work for the development of anatomy?
Prediction 3: Anaesthetics and Antiseptics
This topic (Simpson: chloroform; Lister: carbolic spray) is one of the biggest in the course. Recent long-form questions have avoided surgery altogether:
2025 → Government/NHS
2024 → Prevention
We believe this makes surgery the most likely area for a major judgement question.
Likely 16-Mark Stem:
“The work of Lister was the most significant breakthrough in medicine in the years c1700–1900.” How far do you agree?
Prediction 4: Penicillin & Antibiotics
This is a named case study (Fleming, Florey, Chain). It underpins the story of antibiotics and magic bullets. It has not been a 16-marker for six years, which is highly unusual. We would really suggest that you focus on this.
Possible 16-Mark Stems:
“Penicillin was the most important medical development of the 20th century.” How far do you agree?
Prediction 5: Lung Cancer – Causes, Diagnosis, Government Action
Lung cancer appears at the very end of the course and includes:
Smoking & lifestyle causes
CT scans, bronchoscopy, PET scans
Modern treatments: radiotherapy, chemotherapy, surgery
Government action: taxes, adverts, smoking bans
Despite this, no exam question from 2020–2025 has ever used lung cancer or lifestyle factors explicitly in the question stem.
Possible 16-Mark Stem:
“Government action was the main reason for the improvement in diagnosis and treatment of lung cancer.” How far do you agree?
These areas have been heavily used as the main focus of recent exam papers, making them significantly less likely to reappear in the upcoming cycle: Medieval medicine, including the role of the Church, physicians, the Four Humours and ideas of continuity, featured prominently in 2021, 2022 and 2025; Renaissance developments such as the printing press, Sydenham and broader progress from c1500–1700 appeared in 2021, 2023 and 2024; Germ Theory and Pasteur were central in both 2022 and 2025; questions centred on individuals as a factor have been repeatedly tested through Nightingale (2020), Pasteur (2022), Sydenham (2023) and individuals in prevention (2024); and government action in hospitals formed the focus of the 2025 Question 6. Because these themes have been sampled so frequently, they now rank as lower-probability topics for the next exam session.
Our Warfare and British society Predictions
Historic Environment: London and the Second World War
Since 2020, the exam board has consistently changed the angle of its Historic Environment questions on London in the Second World War. Crucially, they have never repeated a micro-topic, and each year has introduced a new facet of life during the Blitz.
Recent coverage has included:
2020–23: shelters, the Royal Family, preparations for bombing, South Hallsville School disaster, Anderson shelters, Black Saturday, civilian leisure.
2024–25: why London was a target, difficulties in dealing with bombing, evacuation, Cabinet War Rooms, and the impact of bombing.
Because so many themes have now appeared, the untouched or barely touched areas of the specification are the strongest candidates for upcoming assessment. Below are the most likely topics, with the justifications and suggested question formats.
Prediction 1: Underground Stations and “Mickey’s Shelter” / Bethnal Green Disaster
The use of the Underground as shelters is mentioned every year in the spec, yet it has never been the main focus of a question.
South Hallsville (1941) was tested in 2022, but the Bethnal Green disaster (1943) has never appeared as a standalone 4-marker or enquiry.
It allows examiners to do something new while staying fully on-spec, especially around crowd dangers, safety problems, and morale.
Prediction 2: V1 / V2 Rocket Attacks (Deptford, 1944)
The board covered Black Saturday (1940) in 2023, but has never used V-weapons as the central topic.
The last two years (2024–25) focused on traditional Blitz bombing and the difficulties of dealing with bombing. A shift to new weapon technology offers a fresh angle while still fitting the theme of attacks on London.
V-weapons naturally support enquiries into fear, unpredictability, and the challenge of defence.
Possible questions
Q1 (4 marks): “Describe two features of V1 and V2 attacks on London.”
Q2 (8 marks – usefulness): Sources for an enquiry into the impact, fear, or unpredictability of V-weapon attacks.
Prediction 3: ‘Dig for Victory’ & Use of Public Spaces
This has never been the main focus of Q1 or Q2.
It gives the exam board a chance to use visually rich sources—allotments in parks, vegetable plots in the Tower of London moat, propaganda posters, or community gardens.
It fits perfectly with common enquiry stems on adaptation, food shortages, and civilian mobilisation.
Section 2: Warfare and British Society
Prediction 1: Civilian Experience of War (1250-1500)
Across the last four exam cycles, major questions have centred on the nature of warfare or commanders:
2025 (12-mark): The role of cavalry
2023 (12-mark): Decline of the feudal army
2022 (16-mark): Focus on the commander (case study)
These topics cover military organisation and leadership, meaning the civilian experience remains under-assessed.
Meanwhile, the experiences of peasants during campaigns, the burdens of feudal service, and the destructive impact of plunder which are explicitly stated in the syllabus have barely featured in Q4, Q5, or Q6. This makes a civilian-focused question—either a 4-mark compare/contrast or a 12-mark “Explain why”—highly probable.
Prediction 2: Case Study – The Battle of Naseby (1645)
Case studies tend to rotate, particularly for 16-mark essay questions.
In 2023, Naseby appeared as a Q5 essay but was framed broadly as a turning point in the nature of warfare, not a direct “reasons for the outcome” question.
In other years, case studies such as Edward I have reappeared in new formats, suggesting that Naseby is due for a more focused, commander-led or outcome-led assessment.
Other major topics in this period have already been examined:
Composition of the army / standing army: 2020 and 2025
Recruitment and training (New Model Army): 2022
Thus, the untouched angle—reasons for victory at Naseby and Cromwell’s contribution—is the strongest candidate for a major (likely 16-mark) question.
Prediction 3: Balaclava 1854 – outcome and Raglan
Possible angles:
Reasons for the outcome
The role of Lord Raglan
Communication and battlefield confusion
Influence of technology (telegraph, weaponry)
Recent 16-mark essays have covered other major themes:
2025: Industrialisation
2023: Weaponry
2024: Waterloo used only for a 4-mark question
Balaclava is the freshest and least tested case study in this unit. It offers rich material on:
Poor communication
Misinterpreted orders
Command failures
The impact of new reporting and telegraph technology
Because it remains untouched by a major essay in recent years, we believe it is highly likely to be used for either a 12-mark or 16-mark question.
Prediction 4: Continuity & Change in Army Composition and Iraq War
Key topics have already been examined recently:
2025: Recruitment and conscription (Q6)
2022: Impact of war on civilians and the home front
2020: Nature of modern warfare (general)
2021: Specialist groups (but broadly, not focused on logistics/bomb disposal)
This leaves army composition—especially logistics and EOD (bomb-disposal) units—as a prime area for a 12-mark development/continuity question.
Furthermore:
The Iraq War has not yet received a major question.
Its last appearance (2024) was only a brief comparison question.
This strongly signals that a full case-study question (12- or 16-mark) is due.
Our Anglo-Saxon and Norman England Predictions
Prediction 1: Anglo-Saxon society (towns, villages, social structure, government before 1066)
Recent exams (2023–2025) have been heavily weighted towards military and political “action” topics — battles, rebellions, and consolidation. By contrast, the foundations of Anglo-Saxon society (towns, villages, social structure, government before 1066) have had minimal focus since 2021–2022.
Edexcel usually balances pre-conquest and post-conquest content over a three-year cycle, so a return to early Anglo-Saxon life is highly likely.
Possible questions:
Describe two features of Anglo-Saxon towns. (4 marks)
“The power of the Earls was the main feature of Anglo-Saxon government.” How far do you agree? (16 marks)
Prediction 2: The Revolt of the Earls, 1075 (Key Topic 2)
Rebellions feature regularly, but 1075 has never been the main focus of either a 12- or 16-mark question. Edwin and Morcar (2021) and general rebellion themes (2025) have recently been examined, leaving the final major revolt ripe for a detailed evaluation question.
Prediction 3: Bishop Odo
Odo has appeared only briefly (as a “feature” in the 2022 Norman Aristocracy question), but his overall significance, his influence in government, and his later imprisonment in 1082 have never been explored in depth.He fits naturally into questions on:
the Norman aristocracy
causes of unrest under William I or William Rufus
Norman governance and control
Prediction 4: Changes in Landownership After 1066
Although this topic underpins almost every other theme (rebellion, feudalism, control), it has never been the central focus of a major essay question. Edexcel often takes an overlooked supporting theme and elevates it into a standalone 12-marker.
Prediction 5: Normanisation & Reform of the Church (Lanfranc and Stigand)
Church reform has not been tested as a major 12/16-marker for several years. The syllabus clearly highlights:
the corruption of Stigand
Lanfranc’s reforms
the wider Normanisation of the English Church
These themes are overdue. Edexcel tends to cycle back to the Church every 3–4 years.
Prediction 6: Hereward the Wake & The Revolt at Ely (1070–71)
2025 focused heavily on the Harrying of the North, and 2021 covered Edwin and Morcar. The Ely rebellion — the “last stand” against Norman rule — has not been tested as a main question for several years and is ideal for explanation or narrative formats.
Prediction 7: Forest Laws & Regents
Norman government mechanisms have been underused in recent years. With Domesday Book appearing in 2025, Edexcel is likely to rotate to other governmental tools and policies.
Two topics stand out as major gaps:
Forest Laws
Not tested for over 5 years. Perfect as a 4-marker or short explanation.
Regents During William’s Absences
Not the focus of any major essay (2020–2025).
Fits well with questions on Norman control and stability.
Topics Less Likely in 2026
These topics appeared prominently in the 2024 or 2025 exams, making a repeat unlikely:
The Battle of Hastings — 12-marker in 2025.
Domesday Book — 16-marker in 2025.
Norman Castles — feature in 2025, 12-marker in 2024.
William and Robert’s Relationship — tested in 2020, 2023, and 2024.
Edgar the Ætheling / Succession — heavily featured in 2024.
Edexcel rarely repeats major questions two years in a row, especially where coverage across the syllabus is already balanced.
Our Elizabethan England Predictions
Prediction 1: The Plots & Walsingham
The 2025 paper focused broadly on Relations with Spain, while the 2023 paper examined Mary Queen of Scots’ execution. However, the three major Catholic plots—Ridolfi, Throckmorton, and Babington—along with the role of Francis Walsingham and his spy network, have not been the central focus of any 12- or 16-mark question since 2021/2022. This makes the topic statistically overdue.
Prediction 2: The Puritan Challenge
The 2025 paper assessed the success of the Religious Settlement, and the 2024 paper centred on the Catholic threat. By contrast, the Puritan challenge—including the Vestments Controversy and disputes over crucifixes—has not appeared prominently for several years (last major focus: 2020). It is a strong candidate to return, especially for a mid-tier question.
Likely Questions:
12 marks: Explain why the Puritans were dissatisfied with the Religious Settlement.
16 marks (less likely): “The Puritan challenge was more dangerous than the Catholic challenge.”
Prediction 3: Mary, Queen of Scots – Early Years (1568–69)
Recent exams have covered Mary’s execution (2023) and touched on wider diplomatic issues involving Spain (2025). However, the crucial early period—the moment Mary arrived in England and immediately created a political dilemma—has not been examined in depth for several years.
Likely Question:
12 marks: Explain why Mary, Queen of Scots’ arrival in England created a problem for Elizabeth.
Prediction 4: Leisure, Pastimes, and The Theatre
The Society section has followed a repeat pattern in recent years:
2025: Poverty
2024: Virginia
2023: Exploration
2022: Poverty
This creates a clear statistical gap. Leisure, Pastimes, and The Theatre have not been assessed as a major question since 2021, making them one of the most likely areas to reappear.
Prediction 5: Drake’s Raid on Cadiz (1587)
The 2024 examination assessed the defeat of the Armada, while the 2025 paper covered relations with Spain. Drake’s 1587 raid on Cadiz is a distinctive syllabus point that connects these two areas but has not been central to a question recently. It is one of the strongest candidates for a significance-style 12-marker.
Likely Question:
12 marks: Explain the significance of Drake’s raid on Cadiz (1587).
Prediction 6: Exploration – Drake’s Circumnavigation (Key Topic 3)
The 2025 paper included only a 2-mark feature question on exploration. A full written question about Drake’s circumnavigation—either its causes or its significance—has not appeared recently (the 2023 paper focused on exploration technology instead). This makes it a plausible target for 2026.
Likely Question:
12 marks: Explain the significance of Drake’s circumnavigation.
Less Likely Topics
These topics have recently appeared as major questions and are therefore unlikely to be tested again immediately. They should not dominate revision time.
Poverty – tested as a 16-marker in 2025.
Success of the Religious Settlement – the exact 16-marker in 2025.
Virginia Colony – tested as a 16-marker in 2024.
Reasons for the Armada’s Defeat – examined as a 12-marker in 2024.
Our Cold War Predictions
Prediction 1: The Hungarian Uprising (1956) and International Reaction
This is the single biggest anomaly in the recent exam cycle. The Hungarian Uprising has not appeared as a major assessed question for six consecutive years (2020–2025). In contrast, the Prague Spring has already been examined twice in that period (importance in 2021 and consequences in 2024).
Recent papers show a clear shift away from early crises, leaving a gap that Hungary can fill:
2025: Grand Alliance (Narrative)
2024: Yalta
2022–23: Marshall Plan & Warsaw Pact
Given this long absence, examiners are very likely to return to this crisis
Prediction 2: SALT II and the Helsinki Accords
Although détente has appeared in recent years—
2021: Importance of SALT I
2023: Consequences of détente
—the later agreements (Helsinki Accords and SALT II) have never been the named focus of a question. They are prominent in the specification and lend themselves naturally to an importance or significance question.
Prediction 3: Construction and Impact of the Berlin Wall (1961)
Berlin appears frequently, but the Wall itself has never been the explicit centre of an 8- or 16-mark question. The 2022 narrative (Berlin Crisis 1958–63) included the Wall, but only as part of a wider story. Examiners have never zoomed in on the construction or consequences of the Wall as a standalone topic. This makes 2026 an ideal moment to test the event directly.
Note: talking about Berlin, we'd also advise you to study the Berlin Blockade. Enough time has now passed for examiners to revisit the Berlin Blockade (which was a major focus in 2021)—especially in a new form such as a narrative account.
Prediction 4: the Truman Doctrine
While the Marshall Plan has already had its own 8-mark importance question (2022), the Truman Doctrine has neverbeen the named centre of an 8- or 16-mark question. With the exam board already covering:
Yalta (2024)
Marshall Plan (2022)
Containment, détente, Afghanistan, etc.
…a return to the doctrine that marked the official start of the Cold War is extremely natural.
Prediction 5: the Brezhnev Doctrine (1968)
Although Prague Spring has been assessed twice recently (2021 reforms & 2024 consequences), the Brezhnev Doctrine itself has never appeared as a standalone importance question. The exam board may now wish to test students’ understanding of how the doctrine shaped Soviet control of Eastern Europe.
Prediction 6: Reagan and Gorbachev’s Role in Ending the Cold War
The exam board has covered almost every aspect of the late Cold War except this one. For example:
2021: Second Cold War (Narrative)
2022: Gorbachev’s New Thinking (Consequences)
2023: SDI (Importance)
2024: Collapse of Soviet control in Eastern Europe (Narrative)
2025: Fall of the Berlin Wall (Importance)
Yet they have never asked the key specification point which is : How important were Reagan and Gorbachev themselves in ending the Cold War?”
Prediction 7 - Détente – but NOT the Consequences (already tested in 2023)
The 2023 paper asked about the consequences of détente. For 2026, the more likely angles are:
Reasons for détente, or
Reasons for the collapse of détente
Both are explicitly listed in the specification and have not been tested recently.
Topics Unlikely for 2026
These have appeared very recently or have been tested repeatedly:
Grand Alliance / Potsdam (appeared in 2025)
Olympic Boycotts (2025)
Bay of Pigs (2025)
SALT I (2024)
Prague Spring consequences (2024)
Gorbachev’s New Thinking (2022 + 2024)
Collapse of Soviet control in Eastern Europe (2024 narrative)
Second Cold War (2021)
Marshall Plan (2022)
Berlin Ultimatum (2024)
SDI (2023)
Soviet invasion of Afghanistan (2023)
American West
Prediction 1: Little Crow’s War (1862)
Recent papers show a clear rotation of the major Plains Indian conflicts:
2025: Red Cloud’s War
2024: Sand Creek Massacre
2023: Battle of Little Bighorn
This leaves Little Crow’s War (1862) as the only major named conflict that has not appeared in the last exam cycle. It is statistically the most likely conflict to return.
Prediction 2: The First Fort Laramie Treaty (1851) & Early US Government Policy
These early policies have not been tested as major questions since 2020 (and even then, only the Appropriations Act appeared).
Later government actions—such as Red Cloud’s War and later treaties—have been heavily tested in recent years, leaving a clear gap in the earlier material.
Migration has been a focus recently (2025 narrative), and Edexcel often follows this by returning to early government–Plains Indian relations.
Prediction 3: the Exoduster Movement (1879) & Oklahoma Land Rush (1893)
Both the Exodusters and the Land Rush have been absent from main Edexcel questions from 2020–2025. These topics sit prominently in Key Topic 3 but have not been used recently, making them strong candidates for a consequence or narrative question.
Prediction 4: The Mormons & Brigham Young
While the 2025 paper tested Early Migration, the specific and highly significant story of the Mormon migration and the leadership of Brigham Young has not been the main focus of a Narrative or Importance question for several years. This is traditionally a favourite exam-board topic and is now due.
Prediction 5: The Dawes Act (1887)
The Dawes Act last appeared in 2020, which by 2026 places it six years in the past—long enough to return. Recent exams (2024) have already covered the Buffalo and Reservations, making the Dawes Act the natural next step in the story of the erosion of the Plains Indians’ way of life.
Prediction 6: Lawlessness in Early Towns & Attempts to Deal With It (Pre-1870)
Across 2020–2025, almost all Law and Order questions have focused on later developments (post-1870):
2024: Sheriffs and Marshals
2022: Federal Government intervention
2020: Narrative on law and order c1876–95
However, the specification explicitly includes early lawlessness in Gold Rush towns, mining camps, and early settlements. This sub-topic has not appeared as a major question for five years.
Expect possible angles such as:
Violence and disorder in early mining towns
Attempts to maintain order before formal law enforcement existed
Vigilance committees, miners’ courts, San Francisco crime waves
This makes early lawlessness one of the most likely new directions for 2026.
Unlikely topics for 2026
These have been heavily or recently assessed and are very unlikely to be the main focus of a 2026 question:
Railroads: Appeared in 2023 (Narrative), 2024 (Importance), 2025 (Consequence)
Donner Party: Narrative in 2024
Red Cloud’s War: 2025
Buffalo: 2024
Homestead Act: 2022 & 2024
General Early Migration: Broadly tested in 2025 Q2
Russia and the Soviet Union
Prediction 1: Growing Opposition to the Tsar in Early 1917
This section of the specification has not received major attention in recent papers. While later events—such as the Provisional Government and Kornilov—have appeared frequently, the causes of the Tsar’s downfall have not featured as a headline question for several years.
The exam board may now return to the classic build-up topics:
Peasant and worker discontent
Impact of WWI (military defeats, shortages, inflation)
Nicholas II becoming commander-in-chief
Political opposition and Rasputin’s influence
Prediction 2: the February Revolution (1917)
The February Revolution itself has not been the focus recently, despite being one of the clearest, most assessable sequences in the specification. With Q2 in 2025 focusing on why the Civil War broke out, and 2024 focusing on the Provisional Government, the February events are due.
Prediction 3: Early Decrees and Consolidation (1917–18)
Two important omissions now stand out:
Gap 1: The Bolsheviks’ early measures (1917–18)
These include:
Decrees on Land, Peace, Workers’ Control
The closure of the Constituent Assembly
Execution of the Romanovs
Treaty of Brest-Litovsk (and reactions to it)
These foundational steps have not been tested as a key question for several years.
Gap 2: Why the Reds won the Civil War
Although the Civil War itself appeared in 2020 and 2025, examiners have not asked a major question on why the Red Army won—Trotsky’s leadership, White weaknesses, geography, unity, propaganda, the role of War Communism, etc.
Prediction 4: Moves Toward Totalitarianism, 1918–21
These developments have appeared only as supporting points in wider questions (especially 2021’s Q3 on challenges 1921–24). They have not been assessed as a standalone enquiry, even though the specification highlights them prominently.
Prediction 5: Propaganda, Censorship, and the Cult of Stalin
The syllabus devotes considerable detail to:
Socialist Realism
Control of arts, education, religion, and media
The 1936 Constitution
Stalin’s Cult of Personality
However, in the last five years, no 12-mark question has directly targeted these themes. Instead, attention has focused on:
Struggle for power
Purges & show trials
Terror & NKVD
Since these have now “run their course” in recent papers, it is highly probable the exam will shift to the ideological and cultural machinery of Stalinism.
Prediction 6: Industrialisation – Five-Year Plans, Stakhanovites, Gosplan
Within Topic 4, the exam has shown a clear rotation pattern:
2025 Q1: Impact of collectivisation
2024 Q3: Women under Stalin
2022 Q2: Agricultural change
2020 Q3: Workers’ conditions
This means the industrial side of the topic—
Magnitogorsk
Target setting
Success/failure of the Five-Year Plans
Growth of heavy industry
Stakhanovite movement
—has not been given its own question. This whole industry segment is fully due.
Topics Less Likely for 2026
These areas may still appear as bullet points, but are unlikely to be the headline of a question:
Civil War – Reasons it broke out (12-mark in 2020 and 2025)
Provisional Government / Kornilov (12-mark in 2024 + Q1 in 2023)
NEP and War Communism (HEAVY coverage in 2021, 2023, 2024)
Women and ethnic minorities (tested in 2021, 2022, 2024)
Collectivisation as the main question (2022 + 2025 Q1)
Weimar and Nazi Germany
Prediction 1: Consolidation of Nazi Power, 1933–34
The exam board has already tested the rise to Chancellor (2022) and the machinery of terror and control (2024). What has not appeared recently is the crucial transitional period after Hitler became Chancellor but before dictatorship was fully secured.
This gap clearly points to the key consolidation steps:
Reichstag Fire (February 1933)
Enabling Act (March 1933)
Night of the Long Knives (June 1934)
Death of Hindenburg & Oath of Loyalty (August 1934)
Prediction 2: the economic and political recovery under Stresemann.
This is the biggest gap in the entire Weimar–Nazi question cycle. While Weimar culture appeared in 2023, the economic and political recovery under Stresemann has not been the central focus of a major Q2 or Q3 since 2020—six years by the time of the 2026 exam.
Key content overdue for assessment:
The Dawes Plan (1924)
The Rentenmark & economic stabilisation
Locarno Treaties (1925)
League of Nations entry (1926)
Young Plan (1929)
Political stability in the late 1920s
Prediction 3: Nazi Policies Towards Women
The exam has recently focused on other “life under the Nazis” groups:
Youth: 2025 and 2022
Workers/Living Standards: 2025
Minorities/Jews: 2020
This leaves women as the biggest untested lifestyle-demographic in recent years.The specification explicitly highlights:
Kinder, Küche, Kirche
Marriage loans
Lebensborn
Employment restrictions
Reversal of roles during the war
This makes a women-focused question extremely likely.
Prediction 4: Persecution of Minorities (Jews, Roma, “undesirables”)iction 4:
While Kristallnacht was the subject of a Q1 inference in 2020, there has never been a full 12-mark or Section B enquiry on the broader persecution system. Given the centrality of:
Boycott of Jewish shops (1933)
Nuremberg Laws (1935)
Kristallnacht (1938)
Increasing legal and social exclusion
…it is surprising this has not yet appeared in a major question. Enough time has now passed since 2020 for this topic to return.
Prediction 5: the Churches and Religion
Although Opposition has been tested (2025 and 2020), the specific religious subtopic—
Catholic Church
The Protestant Reich Church
Concordat (1933)
Confessional Church
Niemöller
—has been notably absent.
This makes it ripe for assessment, especially since church conflict and control are central to understanding Nazi consolidation and ideology.
Prediction 6: The Munich Putsch (1923)
The Munich Putsch is a pivotal turning point in Nazi history—marking the transition from failed violent revolution to a new strategy of gaining power legally.
Neighbouring topics have been tested:
1918–23 instability
1924–28 reorganisation
…but the Putsch itself has not featured for a long time, making it the missing link in Weimar→Nazi transition questions.
Recently Tested Topics
These topics may still appear in supporting points but are unlikely to headline questions:
Youth policies (2025, 2022)
Workers & living standards (2025)
Treatment of minorities (as Q1) in 2020
Terror and Control (Gestapo/SS) – tested 2024
Becoming Chancellor (1932–33) – tested 2022
Early Weimar instability (1918–23) – multiple appearances
The reorganisation of the Nazi Party (1924–28) – tested within interpretations
The Depression and rise of the Nazis – heavily tested already
These topics may still appear as bullet points but are much less likely to be the headline question.
USA Conflict Home and Abroad
Prediction 1: Education & The Little Rock Nine
Across 2020–2025, education—including Brown v. Board of Education (1954) and Little Rock High School (1957)—has never been the central focus of either a key question. Given the centrality of school integration to the Civil Rights Movement, its long absence is quite striking to say the least
Prediction 2: Nixon and Vietnamisation
Recent papers show a clear chronological progression:
2025 Q3: Escalation under Johnson
2024 Q2: Failure to win the war
2023: Peace negotiations
The examiners have not yet explored Nixon’s distinct policy shift, including:
Vietnamisation
Nixon Doctrine
Bombing of Cambodia and Laos
The push toward “peace with honour”
With Johnson already covered in 2025, the next logical progression is Nixon’s transformation of US strategy.
Prediction 3: Malcolm X
Some things we can note:
Black Panthers were tested in 2022.
Black Power appeared in 2025.
However, Malcolm X himself—his beliefs, influence, transformation after Mecca, and his assassination—has not been the main focus of a key question question recently. He is a major figure with strong contrasts to King and mainstream Civil Rights campaigns, making him ideal for a standalone enquiry
Prediction 4: Early 1960s Protests – Sit-ins, Freedom Riders, James Meredithn
These campaigns are extremely exam-friendly but have been barely touched directly as headline questions:
Greensboro sit-ins (1960)
Freedom Riders & Anniston bomb (1961)
James Meredith & Ole Miss (1962)
Although Freedom Summer (1964) came up in 2023 SBQs, the earlier wave of protest remains untouched.
Prediction 5: Southern Campaigns 1963–65 – Birmingham, Washington, Selma
Key campaigns that achieved major landmark legislation have been underused:
Birmingham (1963)
March on Washington (1963): only Q1 inference in 2020
Selma (1965) → leading to the Voting Rights Act (1965)
These campaigns have not been the focus of key question recently, despite being central to the specification.
Prediction 6: late 1960s–1975: Riots, Kerner Report, Northern Campaigns, Overall Progress
This entire block has been almost untouched as major questions, despite covering:
Riots of 1965–67
Kerner Report (1968)
King’s campaign in the North
King’s assassination (1968)
Overall progress by 1975
The final bullet—extent of progress by 1975—is perfect for a Section B interpretations question drawing on the entire course.
Worthy Considerations
The Tet Offensive (1968); the Tet is huge historically but shockingly has never been the explicit focus of a major question.
Support for the war – the “silent majority” & “hard hats”; Opposition to the war has been tested repeatedly; support has never been the main focus.
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